According to a recently published global oil supply re****t to be
presented by the Energy Watch Group at the Foreign Press Association
in London, world oil production peaked in 2006. Production will start
to decline at a rate of several percent per year. By 2020, and even
more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will
create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing
contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources
in this time frame.
"The most alarming finding is the steep decline of the oil supply
after peak", warns J=F6rg Schindler from the Energy Watch Group. This
result, together with the timing of the peak, is obviously in sharp
contrast to the projections by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
"Since crude oil is the most im****tant energy carrier at a global
scale and since all kinds of trans****t rely heavily on oil, the future
oil availability is of paramount im****tance as it entails completely
different actions by politics, business and individuals.", says
Schindler.
This cautious energy outlook corresponds with statements made by
former US Defense Secretary and CIA Director, James Schlesinger, who
said at a recent oil summit in Cork: "The battle is over, the oil
peakists have won. Current US energy policy and the administration's
oil strategy in Iraq and Iran are deluded."
However, until recently the International Energy Agency denied that a
fundamental change of energy supply is likely to happen in the near or
medium term future. Hans-Josef Fell MP, a prominent member of the
German Parliament, is clear: "The message by the IEA, namely that
business as usual will also be possible in future, sends a diffusing
signal to the markets and blocks investments in already available
renewable energy technologies.
Remaining world oil reserves are estimated to be 1,255 Gb (Giga
barrel) according to the industry database HIS (2006). For the Energy
Watch Group (EWG), however, there are sound reasons to modify these
figures for some regions and key countries, leading to a corresponding
EWG estimate of 854 Gb. This oil supply outlook does not rely
primarily on reserve data which in the past have frequently turned out
to be unreliable. Hence the EWG analysis is based primarily on
production data which can be observed more easily and which are more
reliable.
Peak oil is now. "The oil boom is over and will not return. All of us
must get used to a different lifestyle.", said King Abdullah of Saudi
Arabia, the largest global oil producer. For quite some time, a hot
debate has been going on regarding peak oil. Institutions close to the
energy industry, like CERA, are engaging in a campaign trying to
debunk peak oil as a "theory". However, the EWG re****t shows that peak
oil is real. The world is at the beginning of a structural change of
its economic system. This change will be triggered by a sharp decline
of fossil fuel supplies and will influence almost all aspects of daily
life. Climate change will also force mankind to change energy
consumption patterns by significantly reducing the burning of fossil
fuels.
Anticipated supply shortages could easily lead to disturbing scenes of
mass unrest as witnessed in Burma this month. For government, industry
and the wider public just muddling through is not an option anymore as
this situation could spin out of control and turn into a meltdown of
society.
"My experience of debating the peak oil issue with the oil industry,
and trying to alert Whitehall to it, is that there is a culture of
institutionalised denial in government and the energy industry. As the
evidence of an early peak in production unfolds, this becomes
increasingly impossible to understand", says Jeremy Leggett, the
Solarcentury CEO and former member of the British Government's
Renewables Advisory Board.
Further information:
The Energy Watch Group was founded on joint initiative by Hans-Josef
Fell MP, international parliamentarians and scientists. It is
sup****ted by the Ludwig-B=F6lkow-Foundation and produces re****ts on
fossil and nuclear energy resources, scenarios for regenerative energy
and also strategies for a long-term secure energy supply. The focus
lies thereby on the analysis of economical and technological
implications. Results of these studies are to be presented not only to
expert audiences but also to the wider interested public.
www.energywatchgroup.org
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