WA****NGTON -- Matt Simmons sounds the alarm like the Cassandra of the
oil industry, warning that crude production has peaked and that
looming energy shortages could derail global growth and even spark
armed conflict.
As a prominent "peak oil" theorist, the veteran oil industry financier
paints a grim picture of a world facing resource scarcity. Still, it
doesn't take a "peak-ist" to conclude that the global oil producers
will find it increasingly difficult to keep up with growing demand.
He squared off yesterday against other experts who argue that the
world has yet to reach the physical limits of oil production. But
while they disagreed on the extent of the problem, the panelists at a
U.S. Department of Energy conference in Wa****ngton concurred that
future crude production will be constrained by physical, economic and
political factors that add up to tight markets and higher oil prices.
Despite oil prices that have topped $100 (U.S.) a barrel, there was
little sense at yesterday's conference, put on by the Department of
Energy's Energy Information Administration, that high prices would
spark either a boost in oil output or a sharp fall in global demand.
.... James Schlesinger, who was the United States' first energy
secretary 30 years ago during the oil shock of the late 1970s, warned
of a new crisis looming.
.... "At some point during the decade immediately ahead, we will hit a
plateau, and this will have a tremendous shock both economically and
politically," Mr. Schlesinger said.
(7 April 2008)
Simmons was on a panel discussing peak oil at the EIA conference Apr
7-8. Speeches and presentations from the conference are not yet posted
at the EIA site.
Shawn McCarthy, Globe & Mail
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