With crude oil now above $120 a barrel and threatening to go higher,
it is clear that our preferred and convenient means of going places,
our car, the airplane and the rental car soon are going to be parked
because they will be too expensive to operate.
Like it or not, most of us are going to be riding some form of mass
transit or multiple passenger vehicle =96 trains, buses, trolleys, car
pools, van pools etc.- while waiting for our cars to be replaced with
electric or higher mileage vehicles. As there are currently about 220
million cars and light trucks registered in the U.S. and 700 million
or so elsewhere, the replacement process is going to be lengthy one.
In America, our accustomed daily transportation needs are so diverse
that it is difficult to foresee how new transportation methods and
patterns will come about. For some simply accepting the inconvenience
of taking public transit to work or joining a car pool will save
enough gasoline each week that much higher prices, shortages and
ultimately rationing can be accommodated without undue hardship.
For others whose livelihood depends on a large vehicle that moves
frequently throughout the work day there is more of a problem for mass
transit as currently configured is unlikely to be of much use. At some
point driving around at 10 mpg to mow lawns will no longer be
economically viable for customers will no longer be willing to pay the
fuel surcharges. Someday there probably will be satisfactory electric
or ultra high mileage vehicles, but it is likely to be a while before
they filter down from better off organizations such UPS, FedEx and the
grocery stores to local maintenance contractors.
One day soon, it will simply be too expensive for electricians,
plumbers and a myriad of other household service providers to drive 50
or 60 miles in large, inefficient vehicles to perform some relatively
minor maintenance task. The very nature of such services will have to
change, be localized, and planned so that travel is minimized.
Someday, your electrician may arrive on a city bus pulling his tools
and parts behind.
The speed with which we have to transition from unlimited, cheap,
personal travel to some form of public or at least multiple passenger
transport will determine how transit works in the coming decades. If
people are priced out of their cars relatively slowly over a period of
many years then the transit industry and private entrepreneurs will
have time to react. Bus schedules can be stepped up. More vehicles can
be added to transit fleets and new routes can be added. Local
governments might start or charter small local transit services that
can move people and goods to and from their homes to longer-haul
transit services.
There may be efficiencies in combining people transport and package
delivery on the same vehicle. An empty bus winding around a
subdivision all day long might be unaffordable, but if that vehicle
were delivering the groceries as well as providing the last leg of
package deliveries, the economics even with very high gasoline prices
might make sense. The internet and cell phone are likely to be of
great value in coordinating efficient use of local transport.
Five dollar gasoline may be enough to force some people to give up
steady use of their personal cars and seek other solutions. For
others, the quitting price may be ten or twenty dollars per gallon and
for the very wealthy even $100 a gallon gasoline ($80 or $100 thousand
a year) would be an acceptable price to pay for the convenience of the
private car.
In the case of slowly increasing gasoline prices the problem is one of
forming a critical mass that will make economic sense for greatly
expanded mass transit. Such a critical mass is likely to come for long
distance travel first, for as soon as discretionary air travel becomes
unaffordable, the demand for better train and bus service will
increase rapidly. Long distance automobile travel may fill some of
this gap especially for moving multiple passengers or if cars become
significantly more efficient, but for the lone traveler, a long
distance car trip could become very expensive.
A totally different situation will exist if gasoline prices increase
rapidly and permanent shortages develop leading to the imposition of
rationing. Such an increase looks likely at the minute, demand simply
getting so far ahead of the supply that the U.S. is no longer able to
import its accustomed 12 million barrels per day. It would only take a
five percent shortfall in supply to cause turmoil.
Large organizations should have the resources to look after their
employees in a transportation emergency =96 be it assistance in forming
carpools, company supplied vans, flexible hours, telecommuting or
whatever works. It is the self-employed or employees of small firms
that currently are dependent on motor vehicles for their living that
will be in deep trouble almost immediately. Independent truckers are
already complaining mightily about diesel prices and many have been
forced out of business. Their used trucks, by the way, are being sold
to the Russians in increasing numbers. The Russians will still have
cheap diesel for a while and they love the reliability and comfort of
big American 18 wheelers that are being sold off at bargain prices.
Local governments are going to have to deal with the transportation
problem or be faced with massive social issues as people become
isolated from places of employment. A large decline in personal
mobility is likely to result in considerable economic hardship and job
losses as much discretionary travel will simply stop due to excessive
costs or the inconvenience of other arrangements.
by Tom Whipple
Published on 8 May 2008 by Falls Church News-Press. Archived on 8 May
2008
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