There's an interesting 2001 re****t from Shell on energy futures
called, "Energy Needs, Choices and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050."
The re****t can be read here:
http://www.shell.com/static/media-en/downloads/51852.pdf
This re****t paints a rosy picture of a technological fix (through an
energy substitution process, which is commonly conveyed via
intellectual fast food like the Whale oil story
http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/346/
) to future energy needs. However, if you dig into the assumptions you
find this:
=93Personal Choices =96 related to values, the environment and lifestyles
=96 influence the energy system. Affordability is not the key constraint
in OECD countries.=94 (page 24)
and this:
"... scarcity of oil supplies -- including unconventional and natural
gas liquids -- is unlikely before 2025... Technology improvements are
likely to outpace rising depletion costs for at least the next decade,
keeping new supplies below $20 per barrel. The costs of biofuels and
gas to liquids should both fall well below $20 per barrel of oil
equivalent over the next two decades, constraining oil prices." (page
18)
Of course, seven years of hindsight makes it easy to see these
assumptions are false. It is much harder to find assumption errors
concerning the oil supply that have yet to play out.
