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US and Israel "Play Down Hopes" for Peace Talks
Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit
The New York Times - Nov 12, 2007
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/12/world/middleeast/12annapolis.html
Diplomatic Memo
U.S. and Israel Play Down Hopes for Peace Talks
By STEVEN ERLANGER
JERUSALEM, Nov. 10 " The American-sponsored Middle East peace
conference expected by the end of the month looks to be thin on
content, mostly serving as a stage to begin formal negotiations on a
peace treaty between Israel and the Palestinian president, Mahmoud
Abbas.
Israeli and American officials have been so busy dampening expectations
that they are not even calling the event a conference anymore, instead
referring to it merely as a meeting.
Israeli and Palestinian negotiators are having trouble agreeing on even
a short declaration about the shape of a final peace. Their leaders,
Mr. Abbas and Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, have a rough understanding on
where they are heading, officials of both sides say, but they are
afraid to write it down or say so publicly, given the political cost of
any concessions.
Before the meeting, tentatively scheduled for Nov. 25-27 in Annapolis,
Md., Israeli coalition members are warning Mr. Olmert not to go too far
or get too specific. And Palestinian negotiators are squabbling among
themselves, getting little firm direction from Mr. Abbas.
Because we cant agree on the substance of a joint paper, we prefer to
say were just beginning to negotiate, said a senior Israeli official
close to Mr. Olmert.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice may return to Israel before the
conference to push for a more substantive agreement.
If any do***ent coming out of the conference remains vague, Annapolis
will also be used to mark another effort to carry out the first stage
of the moribund 2003 road map for peace. That first stage calls for
simultaneous efforts by the Palestinians to build state institutions
and fight terrorism, while Israel halts the growth in West Bank
settlements, considered illegal by much of the world, and removes
settler outposts that are illegal under Israeli law.
Ahmed Qurei, the chief Palestinian negotiator, said: What we need for
a successful meeting in Annapolis is to implement the first phase of
the road map. We have suspicions of each other over seven years, so
need to build trust.
But little of that work, too, can be done before Annapolis. From Mr.
Olmerts point of view, changing security on the ground, including
another release of prisoners, is more difficult than negotiating a
declaration of principles, and politically more destabilizing, the
senior official said.
Meanwhile, both sides are still struggling with compromises on the core
issues of final borders, the status of Palestinian refugees and
Jerusalem. While negotiators have agreed to leave the issue of
Jerusalem alone for now, they have fundamental disagreements on how to
couch the other issues.
The Palestinians, for instance, want to be as specific as possible
about the borders of their future state. But they want to be as vague
as possible about Palestinian refugees from the 1948-49 war, afraid to
suggest that the right of return of these refugees and their
descendants may not have much content.
Israel, for its part, wants to be as vague as possible about borders
and land swaps, because it is occupied land to trade that is Israels
main bargaining chip. On the other hand, Mr. Olmert wants to be as
specific as possible about the refugee issue. He and his deputy,
Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, vow that no Palestinian refugee will
return to what is now Israel, and that the new Palestine will be the
homeland for Palestinians.
So Mr. Olmert is reluctant even to countenance the possibility of
humanitarian exceptions, as the Clinton administration did at Camp
David. He is also insistent that the Palestinians recognize Israel as
a Jewish state, another way of trying to shut the door on refugees.
The long buildup to Annapolis, together with Ms. Rices many trips to
the region, have given birth to a new verb in Israeli government
circles: lecondel, meaning, to come and go for meetings that produce
few results. The word is based on Ms. Rices first name.
Still, a weak Mr. Olmert, beset by a failed war against Hezbollah in
Lebanon and numerous criminal investigations, is committed to try,
needing a peace agenda to help justify his term in office. He
understands, senior Israeli officials say, that moderate partners like
Mr. Abbas and Salam Fayyad, the Palestinian prime minister, who believe
in nonviolence and two states, may not come again.
Even if a deal is reached, and many are skeptical, it will not be
carried out for a number of years. Israel wants to be sure that if it
withdraws from the West Bank, there is a reliable Palestinian security
force to stop aggression and terrorism " to ensure that a Hamas-run
Gaza that fires rockets at Israel is not replicated in the West Bank.
As Tony Blair, the representative of the so-called quartet " the United
States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations " pu****ng for
a Middle East peace, said: The true Israeli anxiety is focused not
only on the territory of the Palestinian state, but on the nature of
that state. The true Israeli position is not to agree to a state for
the Palestinians unless they are sure of how that state will function,
how it will be governed, how viable it will be, and not simply in its
territorial contiguity, but in its stability as a long-term partner for
peace.
The risks of failure, all agree, are extremely high, both for Mr. Abbas
and the concept of a negotiated two-state solution. Many Israelis and
Palestinians " and not just Hamas " say they think that Annapolis is
ill-timed and bound to disappoint.
Even senior Israeli and Palestinian officials are worried. If we can
reach a final agreement, then Im willing to risk the government and go
to new elections, the Israeli official close to Mr. Olmert said. But
to risk the government for something unclear seems unwise. To go to
Annapolis and lose a government is not a good idea.
The problem, he said, is how both Mr. Olmert and Mr. Abbas can come up
with a paper and both of them stay alive politically.
As for Mr. Abbas and Fatah, the risks are existential, a senior
Palestinian aide said. He pointed not just to the Hamas takeover of
Gaza, but to the warnings of senior Hamas leaders like Mahmoud Zahar
that Mr. Abbas was a collaborator with Israel and that the West Bank
could be next. Mr. Zahar said Friday, We say to the West Bank, ~Take a
lesson from what happened in Gaza.
Israel says the party in Ramallah serves Israel, Mr. Zahar continued,
referring to Fatah, and if Israel quits the West Bank, Hamas will take
it over. And we say this is true.
Copyright 2007 The New York Times Company
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