Loss and Furor Take Toll on Obama, Poll Finds
By ROBIN TONER and MEGAN THEE
Published: May 1, 2008
WA****NGTON =97 Senator Barack Obama=92s aura of inevitability in the
battle for the Democratic presidential nomination has diminished after
his loss in the Pennsylvania primary and amid the furor over his
former pastor, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll.
The poll was conducted Friday through Tuesday, largely before Mr.
Obama=92s news conference on Tuesday, in which he denounced his former
pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr., and may not have fully
captured the impact of the controversy or Mr. Obama=92s response.
But the survey found that Mr. Obama, whose lead in the race for the
delegates needed to secure the nomination has given him a commanding
position over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton since February, is now
perceived to be in a much tighter fight. Fifty-one percent of
Democratic primary voters say they expect Mr. Obama to win their
party=92s nomination, down from 69 percent a month ago. Forty-eight
percent of Democrats say he is the candidate with the best chance of
beating Senator John McCain of Arizona, the presumptive Republican
nominee, down from 56 percent a month ago.
Mr. Obama, of Illinois, still holds an edge over Mrs. Clinton, of New
York, on several key measures; for example, 46 percent of the
Democratic primary voters said he remained their choice for the
nomination, while 38 percent preferred Mrs. Clinton, down from 43
percent last month, and she has lost sup****t among men in recent
weeks. Mr. Obama also has an advantage over Mrs. Clinton in ratings on
honesty and integrity and in being less beholden to special interest
groups.
But a month of upheaval =97 including a nearly 10-point loss to Mrs.
Clinton in Pennsylvania =97 has taken a toll, and not just on Mr. Obama:
56 percent of Democrats described their party as divided. In contrast,
60 percent of Republicans see their party as unified, a striking
turnaround from the Republican turmoil at the start of the primary
season.
Adding to the volatility is the economy. Anxiety over that issue,
already high a month ago, has continued to climb. More than 4 in 10
voters cited the economy as the one issue they want the candidates to
address, up from about 30 percent in a CBS News Poll in mid-March.
(Only the war, cited by 17 percent, came close.)
Democrats see no early end to the Obama-Clinton battle, the poll
found. About 7 in 10 Democratic voters predict that their party=92s
nominee will not be decided before the convention in August. And a
plurality of voters say this will eventually hurt their party=92s
chances against Mr. McCain.
=93I don=92t think either one of them would ever concede,=94 Andrew
Antonucci, a 66-year-old Democrat and retired firefighter from
Arlington, Mass., said in a follow-up interview. =93It=92ll go down to the
wire.=94
Robert Mobley, 28, a Democrat and motor coach operator in Orlando,
Fla., said: =93People can=92t figure out who they want to choose. Sadly, I
don=92t think it=92s really a political issue. I think it=92s more like a
=91what kind of history do we want to set?=92 issue. Do we want to break
the race barrier or the gender barrier?=94
Still, there is resistance to the idea of party leaders stepping in to
resolve the fight. Even among Democrats who said a lengthy battle
would hurt the party, a majority said the contest should continue
until one candidate clearly wins the delegate count.
The poll was conducted as Mr. Wright dominated political news with a
series of speeches and appearances; among other incendiary claims, he
suggested that the United States was attacked by terrorists because it
had itself engaged in terrorism.
The nationwide telephone poll was conducted with 1,065 adults, 956 of
them registered voters; it has a margin of sampling error of plus or
minus three percentage points over all, and plus or minus five
percentage points among those who say they have voted or will vote in
a Democratic primary or caucus.
The survey suggests a very competitive race this November regardless
of whom the Democrats nominate. In a head-to-head race between Mr.
Obama and Mr. McCain, both candidates are backed by 45 percent of the
registered voters. In a race between Mrs. Clinton and Mr. McCain, 48
percent back Mrs. Clinton and 43 percent sup****t Mr. McCain.
The weakening economy showed up in the poll in personal ways: As food
and gas prices soar, more Americans say they are having a hard time
saving or buying extras. Thirty-eight percent said they could do so in
February, while just 27 percent said so in the latest poll.
President Bush continues to get low marks on his overall job
performance, with just 21 percent approving of his handling of the
economy. Given those ratings, Mr. McCain faces a political challenge
in establi****ng his own identity: about half of all voters say they
expect him to continue Mr. Bush=92s policies if elected, while 1 in 5
say his policies will be even more conservative.
The challenge facing Mr. McCain also shows up on foreign policy: a
majority of voters said they preferred that the next president try to
end the war in Iraq within the next few years; they overwhelmingly
said it was more im****tant to have a nominee who was flexible about
withdrawing the troops than someone committed to staying in Iraq until
the United States succeeds.
For the Democrats, sup****ters of Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton are
digging in, with two-thirds in each camp saying they =93strongly
sup****t=94 their candidate. But Democrats are open to the idea of a
Clinton-Obama or an Obama-Clinton ticket. About 6 in 10 Democrats said
they would like to see the winner take the other candidate as a
running mate.
Each of the three presidential candidates has clear strengths and
weaknesses. More voters have confidence in Mrs. Clinton=92s and Mr.
McCain=92s ability to =93wisely=94 handle an international crisis than
feel
that way about Mr. Obama. Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain, on the other hand,
get higher ratings than Mrs. Clinton when it comes to =93having more
honesty and integrity than most people in public life.=94
And the two Democrats edge out Mr. McCain when it comes to caring
about the needs and problems of average Americans.
Republicans are already trying to ****tray Mr. Obama as a liberal who
is outside the mainstream of American values, but the poll suggests
that =97 so far, at least =97 he is not viewed that way by most Americans.
Nearly two-thirds of registered voters said they believed he shared
their values, about the same number who felt that way about Mr. McCain
(58 percent said Mrs. Clinton shared their values).
But Mr. Obama has vulnerabilities. Only 29 percent of registered
voters said they considered him =93very patriotic,=94 compared with 40
percent who described Mrs. Clinton that way. Mr. McCain, a former
prisoner of war, was considered =93very patriotic=94 by 70 percent of the
registered voters.
The underlying political landscape continues to favor the Democrats,
despite their divisions. Over all, 52 percent said they had a
favorable opinion of the Democratic Party, compared with 33 percent
who said that about the Republican Party.
Marjorie Connelly, Marina Stefan and Dalia Sussman contributed
re****ting.
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