California Democrats crow over voter roll uptick
By Dan Walters - dwalters@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
12:00 am PDT Monday, May 5, 2008
California's Democratic leaders, who have seen their share of the
electorate decline by about 15 percentage points over the last three
decades, are crowing about an uptick in registration.
Secretary of State Debra Bowen reported that Democratic registration
jumped from 42.7 percent in December to 43.5 percent last month, while
Republican registration declined by virtually the same amount.
"The Democratic voter registration train in California continues to
accelerate while the Republican train has jumped off the tracks,"
state Democratic Chairman Art Torres proclaimed, citing a 469,700-
voter gain from 2004 and a 109,870-voter loss by Republicans.
Torres and other Democratic leaders are also elated that two counties
that had acquired Republican pluralities during the decades of
Democratic decline, Ventura and Stanislaus, now have moved back into
the Democratic column by narrow margins.
What neither they nor anyone else knows, however, is whether it's a
permanent trend or merely a temporary lull in the long-term erosion of
Democratic Party strength, which has been much more dramatic than the
losses suffered by Republicans. Both parties have been losing ground
to the rising ranks of independents aligned with no party, who now
constitute just under 20 percent of voters.
President Bush's very low popularity in the state has contributed to
the Democratic gains, no doubt, along with the intense voter interest
generated by the duel between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack
Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination and what Torres
describes as an effective party registration drive.
Republican registration efforts, meanwhile, have been hindered by the
state party's precarious finances, as well as Bush's unpopularity. But
a few days after the registration report was released, Insurance
Commissioner Steve Poizner =96 a likely GOP candidate for governor in
2010 =96 announced that he was contributing from his vast personal
fortune to a new voter registration drive.
The positive Democratic registration news has ramifications for this
year's elections and, were it to continue, could impact the campaigns
for governor, U.S. senator and other statewide offices two years
hence.
Portions of newly Democratic Stanislaus County, for instance, are in
the 12th Senate District, where Republican incumbent Jeff Denham faces
a Democratic-sponsored recall election on June 3. And Republican
registration has slipped by three percentage points, down to under 35
percent, since Denham won re-election in 2006.
Ventura County's new Democratic plurality, to cite another example,
typifies the party's gains in the 19th Senate District, which is
likely to be the state's most heavily contested legislative
battleground in November. The district, centered in Ventura but
including portions of Los Angeles and Santa Barbara counties, was
designated as a Republican bastion in the bipartisan gerrymander of
legislative seats seven years ago, but its once-large GOP voter margin
has been shrinking.
Four years ago, as Republican Sen. Tom McClintock was seeking re-
election in the 19th District, he had a seven-percentage-point GOP
margin. Today it's down to scarcely two points as McClintock is forced
out of the Legislature by term limits and seeks a congressional seat
400 miles to the north in the Sacramento suburbs. Two former Assembly
members, Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Hannah-Beth Jackson,
are preparing to duel in the 19th District, and the outcome could
change the balance of power in the Senate, especially if the Denham
recall succeeds.
Finally, whatever hopes Republican Sen. John McCain may harbor for
winning California's presidential electoral votes will be dimmed if
the gap between Republicans and Democrats continues to widen.
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