My daughter who is married to a dairy farmer told me four weeks ago
that they couldn't buy fertilizer for the spring planting. Now it is
all over the news. All the indicators are falling in place. We don't
ahve to worry about global warming because most of us will be gone
before it ever happens. Remember, 2.5 billion people in 1968, and 6.5
billion people now. That means the population has doubled in 40
years. The famines are coming! Every day over 200,000 people are
added and every month 6 million people are added. Every month 10
times the entire population of Alaska is added to this planet.
excerpt:
A number of factors are behind what Vernon and other industry insiders
see as the need to change fertilizer-buying practices. These factors
include growing worldwide demand for fertilizers, as well as high U.S.
natural gas prices, which have reduced domestic nitrogen manufacturing
capacity and increased dependence on im****ts by the U.S.
Volatility of U.S. natural gas prices is a third critical factor,
since natural gas is the major component in nitrogen fertilizer and
world fertilizer prices are pegged loosely to the U.S. natural gas
market.
Because of increased price volatility and the resulting higher risk of
loss of value of inventories, manufacturers and distributors have
tightened sales practices in recent years. Instead of having ample
supplies on hand for anticipated needs, they have held back on booking
fertilizer until it has been sold. The potential for shortages emerges
when these changes are overlaid with longer lead times to procure
fertilizer than in the past =97 between 45 and 75 days from loading from
a plant in the Middle East to major distribution facilities in the
Midwest.
=93In the past, we had =91just-in-case=92 inventory,=94 Vernon says.
=93We'v=
e
gone from =91just-in-case=92 to =91just-in-time.=92 It is hard to do
just-in=
-
time with a bulky product like fertilizer.=94
=93We have been telling our customers that the domestic fertilizer
industry is going the way of crude oil,=94 says Wright, the Kansas ag
retailer. =93We are an im****t-dependent country. We have to begin to
procure supplies months in advance for this system to work.=94
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