"Rostyslaw J. Lewyckyj" <urjlew@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
news:<aQH%c.75979$N11.74579@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>...
> Eugene Holman wrote:
> > In article <13ea6e3a.0409052233.6807ad41@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>,
> > palmer.william@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
(Bill Palmer) wrote:
> > <deletions>
[...]
> >
> > Regards,
> > Eugene Holman
> Do note Eugene, that in the NYC case the initial estimate was a 2X
> overestimate. While in the Beslan case it was an understatement by
> about a factor of 7X. i.e. ~200 admitted to and ~1400 people there.
> Ok. the 200 was being given out as an estimate of hostages, and the
> 1400 is an estimate of people there. But it appears that all the
> people inside were actually being held hostage.
> In NYC it was a casualty estimate i.e. an estimate of the people
> who didn't get out, out of a guessed number of how many might
> have been in the trade center buildings. Definitely more confusing
> then in Beslan, where all that was being estimated is 'how many
> people might there be in the buildings'. Also 1400 looks a lot
> different than 200.
You are correct. 9-11 was far more confusing. It
is in fact very reasonable to guess that were any
number of people in the vicinity of that school --
people with an affiliation with it of one sort
of another, professional, volunteer, parental,
etc. -- who could have given a fair estimate
of how many people were inside, not being off
by more than a couple of hundred either way,
at most. Common sense suggests that, because
this was not some isolated private school that
the local people did not know much about because
it was hidden behind walls someplace, this was
an active part of the community.
No, the Russian government did itself no favor
by starting its official re****t with a transparent
fib and then following with curious scenarios
about bombs just happening to roll from basketball
hoops when "unarmed volunteers" exited a truck
in an alley behind the school, supposedly to
pick up bodies; followed by even stranger
scenarios about highly-trained and professional
Russian commandos just happening to get shot
in the back by heavily armed, emotionally
wrought-up townspeople who just happened to
be located right behind the soldiers and firing
with reckless abondon (words such as "police
cordon" and "perimiter" apparently representing
concepts so foreign to Russia that they cannot
even be translated)...
Mr. Palmer
Room 314 in the upstairs office
> Also a reasonably accurate estimate of the size of the problem
> i.e. number of people involved would have been im****tant for
> the "rescuers" anyway, so your excuse doesn't hold water.
> In NYC the authorities set up a formal office to tally the dead
> and missing. Wouldn't you expect the same in Beslan? With similar
> results, as far as accuracy?
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