Mbeki's Continued Baby-Sitting Mugabe Unacceptable
The New Times (Kigali)
OPINION
11 May 2008
Posted to the web 12 May 2008
Ndung'u Wainaina
Kigali
Zimbabwe crisis coming hotly after Kenya is indicative of grave dangers
ahead threatening governance, democracy and human rights in Africa. It is
a
vindication of severe weaknesses and deficit of internal institutions in
resolving internal disputes and conflicts not just within the country but
also within African Union.
Of keen interest would be how Ghana and South Africa are set to handle
their
respective elections with ethnic cleavages starting to emerge. While the
Africa Union may protest this assertion and parade Kenya as contrary
evidence, my opinion remains. What happened in Kenya is legitimization of
civilian coup against people's sovereign will through back door.
The political deal brokered by African Union mediation process led by Dr.
Kofi Annan cannot be the formula to brand and market. Nobody should
attempt
to propose this formula to Zimbabwe. It is fraudulent, cruel and
illegitimate. It subverts democracy and human rights. Consolation is that
despite the Robert Mugabe's incredible regime brutality, the indomitable
spirit of the people of Zimbabwe and their yearning for democracy remains
unbowed. African Union and others in international community must stand
with
the people of Zimbabwe in order to realize their goal of democracy and
human
rights.
Mugabe's barbaric acts of cru****ng opponents seem as entrenched as ever.
It
is significant to emphasise that Mugabe lost the election but is forcing
to
negotiate his way out - a fact that has been confirmed by outcome of the
forced re-count of votes. The South African government apparently sup****t
for re-run is misguided. How do you conduct and manage a re-run in an
extremely volatile and conflict situation?
President Mbeki has his right of opinion but I do not think the Southern
Africa Development Community necessarily shares the same position. South
Africa might be the regional top dog with peculiar historical ties to
Zimbabwean people but that must not be the excuse for complacency and
baby-sitting Mugabe. Truth be told, Mugabe has a progressive side.
However,
his invocation of imperialism sabotage to justify brutalizing and
annihilating Zimbabweans is unacceptable. A three-tiered pressure approach
accompanied by clear division of labor between the African Union, United
Nations, Zimbabwe's neighbors and the wider international community is
required to bring change in Zimbabwe. It is im****tant to observe that
constitutional and governance reforms are absolutely critical before going
into another election. A transient government and a reform agenda
programme
is the starting point.
The first tier would build on the work of the President Mbeki's mediation
process. He has been able to establish a reasonable relation****p with all
the key players in Zimbabwe crisis. It therefore makes sense for this
process to be taken over, strengthened and directed by the African Union
to
coordinate the diplomatic efforts. SADC can play key role focusing on
constitutional, electoral and political reforms, national reconciliation
and
socio-economic reforms. This would require sustained, high-profile
mediation
efforts. However, accountability for the grave human rights violations
must
not be sidetracked. Secondly, accelerated and structured regional talks
are
essential. South Africa and other neighboring countries have taken heat
for
their defense of Mugabe even when he is committing absurd atrocities. This
has seriously damaged their credibility and moral legitimacy to intervene.
Now is the time for them to call in their favors with the brutal Mugabe's
regime. Zambia and Botswana are showing progressive leader****p in
resolving
Zimbabwe crisis unlike ambivalent South Africa. Regional talks based on
the
prospect of Zimbabwe's reintegration into the region should address the
need
for long-term stability, democratic reforms and transparent socio-economic
policy. Without paranoia, Zimbabwe neighbours and friends will need to
reassure Zimbabweans that Zimbabwe's stability and territorial integrity
are
not threatened by their intervention but it is for the good of the region.
African Union has been accused for long for reluctance and lackluster
initiative in resolving Africa's governance crisis. The West must accept
that given a chance and sup****t AU can deliver. Regional civil societies
have to take more bold steps in helping Zimbabweans. I know Open Society
Initiative for Southern Africa, Open Society Initiative for Eastern
Africa,
Kenya's human rights groups, South Africa's human rights and labour
movements amongst others are working jointly with various Zimbabwean civil
society groups. Their active involvement and participation in resolving
Zimbabwe crisis is of utmost necessity. It is possible that Mugabe might
agree to constructive actions with a group consisting of regional actors.
The wider international community has a vital role to play too, providing
the context for the regional talks and the UN's mediation efforts. This
would mean keeping human rights at the top of the agenda; developing a set
of escalating sanctions targeting top notch Mugabe sup****ters and
incentives
to encourage progress and punish recalcitrance by the regime; and
monitoring
the regional talks to ensure they do not degenerate into an excuse for
inaction and arena of rewarding gross human rights violations. A
development
partners' dialogue forum could help address the urgent problems of hunger,
poverty, and disease. It could also start contingency planning for a
transition to democracy. The crisis in Zimbabwe goes beyond politics.
After
decades of oppression, institutional failure and poverty, the country
suffers deep social divisions, incompetent and corrupt governance,
collapse
of the social amenities and deep-rooted structural poverty of major
pro****tions. The creation of a development partners' forum would send a
powerful message to Mugabe that there is an alternative to self-perceived
hostile relations with the outside world.
Resolving Zimbabwe crisis must also address certain persistent
misperceptions. The first is that ever tighter sanctions can force change.
Mugabe and his cohorts are used to ostracism, and they are not going to be
forced to give up power through West-styled sanctions. The second is that
South Africa and certain East countries like China holds the key, if only
they can exert their influence. China's influence and sup****t come out
recently through ****pment of consignment of arms to Zimbabwe. Arms
moratorium to Zimbabwe is critical. Zimbabwe does not just need removal of
Mugabe's brutal regime. At best, Mugabe removal can only be beginning of
the
real process of transforming governance. Zimbabwe faces real problems of
internal conflict and instability. Rule by fait has caused most formal and
informal institutions to wither. Change will require compromises, and will
be slow at best. There is a small window of op****tunity to bring change in
Zimbabwe. African Union and Zimbabwe's neighbors backed by the
international
community should seize the moment.
Writer is Director, International Center for Policy and Conflict
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