Drifting from promise of independence
Once seen as inevitable, Kosovo's separation from Serbia now seems a
fading prospect
Mark Tran
Wednesday September 19, 2007
Guardian Unlimited
The Kosovo prime minister, Agim Ceku, whose credibility is crumbling
at home. Photograph: Hrvoje Polan/AFP/Getty Images
The Serbian foreign minister had good reason to sound relaxed and
confident during an appearance before the media and foreign policy
experts in London this week.
Vuk Jeremic, who was in Britain for the latest round of diplomacy on
Kosovo, and the government in Belgrade are sitting pretty because the
prospect of independence for the Serbian province, once apparently a
certainty, is receding fast.
It appears now that Kosovo, which has been administered by the UN for
the past eight years since a Nato bombing campaign forced Serbia's
withdrawal in 1999, will remain in political limbo.
The fear is that simmering tensions will boil over into violence as
Kosovans see the promise of independence snatched away.
For the Albanians, who make up 90% of Kosovo's population of 2
million, the whole episode has been a diplomatic disaster. The Kosovan
prime minister, Agim Ceku, who was in London today to see a "troika"
of envoys from the US, Russia and the EU, has lost all political
credibility at home after putting his trust in the west - particularly
the US - to deliver the prize of independence.
The latest blow to Mr Ceku came from Wolfgang Ischinger, the top EU
negotiator and the German ambassador to the UK. In an interview with
the Independent, he seemed to sharply pull the rug from under the feet
of the Kosovan leadership.
"I would leave open independence. I would rather talk about a strong
supervised status," he said.
Analysts say the remarks have had a dreadful impact and will reinforce
fears among a growing number of Albanians that they have been led down
the garden path by their western "friends".
All this seems a very long way from the upbeat predictions from US
officials at the start of the year, culminating in a pledge by George
Bush in June.
During a visit to Albania, where he received a hero's welcome, the US
president backed the goal of independence for Kosovo and said the
matter would be put before the UN security council, along the lines of
a plan drawn up by the former Finnish president Marti Ahtisaari.
The resolution never saw the light of day, shelved repeatedly because
of Russia, which has chosen Kosovo as one of the fields in which to
flex its new diplomatic muscle.
At the G8 meeting in Germany in July, the west refused to call
Russia's bluff and France muddied the waters by proposing more time
for more talks. This is not what Mr Ahtisaari would have predicted
when he went to Belgrade in 2005 and told the Serbian government that
Kosovo's independence was inevitable.
This week's discussions between the troika and, separately, Serbian
and Albanian leaders in London are a prelude to the first face-to-face
talks between the two parties, scheduled for September 28 in New York
on the margins of the UN assembly. The troika is due to report back to
the UN by December 10, when the west says a decision must be taken.
But the December deadline is likely to come and go without a
diplomatic resolution any closer. The west has lost the stomach for
this particular fight. After sounding so gung-ho on independence for
Kosovo, the Bush administration has other more pressing worries -
Iraq, Iran, the Middle East - and seems no longer willing to take on
the Kremlin over the issue.
In Britain, another strong advocate of independence, a changing of the
guard has not worked to Kosovo's advantage. Tony Blair, for whom
Kosovo was a test case for liberal interventionism, is gone and the
old Kosovo hands at the Foreign Office are also moving on.
The 27-member EU is divided: Spain, Hungary, Greece, Slovakia, Cyprus
and Romania are among those against independence, either because of
their proximity to the Balkans or due to fears that it could encourage
separatists within their own borders. With EU unity now at stake,
Britain will be reluctant to press for independence as it would
shatter a common position.
As political paralysis persists in the west, Kosovo is likely to drift
into partition, with the Serbs in northern Kosovo looking to Belgrade,
and the area increasingly becoming a no-go area for the Albanian
majority. Meanwhile, Albanians will chafe at being stuck in an
international no man's land, raising the risk that Nato soldiers or
international officials will become targets of Albanian frustration.
Publicly, Belgrade rejects partition, as Mr Jeremic again asserted
yesterday at the Chatham House foreign affairs thinktank. But that is
politically more acceptable than independence.
The best outcome for stability in the west Balkans is for the EU to
recognise Kosovo, at once releasing all of the frustration felt by the
Albanian population. The EU would also be doing Belgrade a favour -
although Serbian politicians would never admit it openly - as it would
take a festering problem off their hands. But the indications are that
the EU will fail to meet what it has described as its biggest
challenge.
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