"dlink" <dlink@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> a écrit dans le message de
news:fve29j$erh$1@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> Le réchauffement climatique pourrait s'arrêter selon les experts...
>
> Selon des scientifiques, le réchauffement climatique pourrait s'arrêter
> jusqu'à au moins 2015 à cause des variations naturelles du climat...
>
>
> Ne pas rire !
Attention! o.gehem ne sait pas rire avec çà
>
>
>
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/main.jhtml?xml=/earth/2008/04/30/eaclimate130.xml
>
Le plus marrant ce sont les commentaires. Les silencieux sortent de leur
tanière avec vengeance.
Dommage qu'on ne les ai pas entendu plus tôt.
Il ne manquerait plus que cela continu de chauffer maintenant jusqu'à
2015.
:-))))
Parce que je ne vois pas pourquoi il faudrait les croire maintenant et moi
personnellement je préférerais quelques degrés en plus qu'en moins.
> <cite>
> Global warming may 'stop', scientists predict
>
> By Charles Clover, Environment Editor
> Last Updated: 6:01pm BST 30/04/2008
>
>
> Global warming will stop until at least 2015 because of natural
variations
> in the climate, scientists have said.
> # Have your say: Do you believe in global warming?
> # Arctic ice melting 'faster than predicted'
> # Weather Channel boss calls global warming 'the greatest scam in
history'
>
> Researchers studying long-term changes in sea temperatures said they now
> expect a "lull" for up to a decade while natural variations in climate
> cancel out the increases caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.
> Global warming may stop, scientists predict The study predicts the
IPCC's
> 0.3ºC temperature rise for the next decade may not happen
> Melting icebergs: The study predicts the IPCC's 0.3ºC temperature rise
for
> the next decade may not happen
>
> The average temperature of the sea around Europe and North America is
> expected to cool slightly over the decade while the tropical Pacific
> remains unchanged.
>
> This would mean that the 0.3°C global average temperature rise which has
> been predicted for the next decade by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel
on
> Climate Change may not happen, according to the paper published in the
> scientific journal Nature.
>
> However, the effect of rising fossil fuel emissions will mean that
warming
> will accelerate again after 2015 when natural trends in the oceans veer
> back towards warming, according to the computer model.
>
> Noel Keenlyside of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Kiel,
> Germany, said: "The IPCC would predict a 0.3°C warming over the next
> decade. Our prediction is that there will be no warming until 2015 but
it
> will pick up after that."
>
>
> He stressed that the results were just the initial findings from a new
> computer model of how the oceans behave over decades and it would be
> wholly misleading to infer that global warming, in the sense of the
> enhanced greenhouse effect from increased carbon emissions, had gone
away.
>
> The IPCC currently does not include in its models actual records of such
> events as the strength of the Gulf Stream and the El Nino cyclical
warming
> event in the Pacific, which are known to have been behind the warmest
year
> ever recorded in 1998.
>
> Today's paper in Nature tries to simulate the variability of these
events
> and longer cycles, such as the giant ocean "conveyor belt" known as the
> meridional overturning circulation (MOC), which brings warm water north
> into the North East Atlantic.
>
> This has a 70 to 80-year cycle and when the circulation is strong, it
> creates warmer temperatures in Europe. When it is weak, as it will be
over
> the next decade, temperatures fall. Scientists think that variations of
> this kind could partly explain the cooling of global average
temperatures
> between the 1940s and 1970s after which temperatures rose again.
>
> # Global warming forecast predicts rise in 2014
>
> Writing in Nature, the scientists said: "Our results suggest that global
> surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural
> climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific
tem****arily
> offset the projected anthropogenic [manmade] warming."
>
> The study shows a more pronounced weakening effect than the Met Office's
> Hadley Centre, which last year predicted that global warming would slow
> until 2009 and pick up after that, with half the years after 2009 being
> warmer than the warmest year on record, 1998.
>
> Commenting on the new study, Richard Wood of the Hadley Centre said the
> model suggested the weakening of the MOC would have a cooling effect
> around the North Atlantic.
>
> "Such a cooling could tem****arily offset the longer-term warming trend
> from increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
>
> "That emphasises once again the need to consider climate variability and
> climate change together when making predictions over timescales of
> decades."
>
> But he said the use of just sea surface temperatures might not
accurately
> reflect the state of the MOC, which was several miles deep and dependent
> on factors besides temperatures, such as salt content, which were
included
> in the Met Office Hadley Centre model.
>
> If the model could accurately forecast other variables besides
> temperature, such as rainfall, it would be increasingly useful, but
> climate predictions for a decade ahead would always be to some extent
> uncertain, he added.
>
> </cite>
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