There are good reasons for Tamil separatists to panic. In 1972 they
resolved to create the Tamil Elam nation in the North-East of Sri
Lanka. In 1977 the TULF made it an election manifesto. In 1983 the
LTTE, with the blessings of the TULF, locked horns with the security
forces in a bitter battle. Just four years later, in 1987, Tamil
separatists managed to merge the North with the East amply sup****ted
by India. It took them only 15 years to achieve what nobody thought
possible then. However, things changed drastically. The 1987 political
solution failed to end the war; in fact it made it more ferocious. In
a landmark decision the Supreme Court split the North from the East in
2006. What violence, terror, Indian interference and malice managed to
achieve was reversed. This was a victory of the people of the East.
Security forces made it more meaningful by eliminating the LTTE from
the East in 2007. Now Eastern provincial council elections! It took
only 2 years to reverse what terror achieved in 15 years.
An interesting situation would arise in the event of a UNP/SLMC
victory at the election. Although this may be inimical for the
government, it has the effect of dispelling the myth of Tamil
homelands. Tamils and Muslims are different as far as Sri Lankans are
concerned and most im****tantly in the eyes of the international
community. While India and some others of the international community
would vehemently disagree to a Muslim controlled East, which is still
claimed by Tamil separatists as part of their mythical homeland,
western powers may not like it at all. However, western powers will be
flabbergasted how democracy will take root in the East similar to
Pakistan. It has been observed that while dictator****p suppresses
Islamic fundamentalism in Pakistan, democracy sets it free. The
emergence of Muslim nationalism in Eastern Sri Lanka will be one of
India=92s worst nightmares. The fact that it stands in the way of
allowing Tamil autonomy will hurt India even further! Simply India
will realize that a Muslim controlled East will be the epitaph of the
Tamil nation even before its birth. This will be another bitter lesson
for India how their unwelcomed interference in Lanka backfired.
Tamil separatists, including =93moderates=94 will be hurt beyond
consolation as their dreamland will fade away right in front of their
eyes. The international community will be convinced beyond a hint of
doubt that East cannot be part of the Tamil nation LTTE is fighting
for; nor can it be a part of the administrative unit the much awaited
political solution will grant to Tamils. This is the biggest victory a
Muslim CM would achieve. May be the in***bent would not wish
antagonism from the LTTE and other Tamil separatists. But the wave has
already been generated and there is no stopping it now. Voters will
demand from the CM to live up to the promises made before the
election. Else voters=92 confidence in this party will plummet much to
the advantage of its many rivals.
LTTE demands on =91Muslim representation=92 at the ill-fated 2002-03
=91peace talks=92 is a case in point. In spite of signing a MoU with the
LTTE by the SLMC, the LTTE refused to allow any separate Muslim
participation. A senior Muslim leader of the SLMC participated only as
a member of the government delegation. This shows the uncompromised
stand of the LTTE. Therefore however much the SLMC will pander to LTTE
demands, the LTTE will never accept it as the rightful ruler of the
Eastern Province. It leads to the end of the long standing friend****p
between pro-LTTE elements within the SLMC and the LTTE. Tamil tigers
will do whatever it takes to alleviate the signals a Muslim dominated
Eastern PC will relay to the international community. However, they
will never succeed suppressing democracy. Future =91peace talks=92 with
the LTTE will also be nearly impossible as Tamil tigers would demand
the dismantling of the separate political infrastructure in the East
which would be cemented by a Muslim CM.
United National Party (UNP) will also be in hot water. It will no
longer be possible for the UNP to play the eunuch role between LTTE
interests and Eastern Muslim interests. The UNP leader****p will have
to chose one and lose the other.
All pro-LTTE elements know this only too well. They tried their best
to stop the Eastern PC election in vain. Some very senior Tamil
=93moderate=94 politicians who scream about democracy are dead silent
about the election! However, the Eastern election must go ahead and it
must be allowed to open up a can of worms. Problems that were hush-
hushed in 1987 must be addressed at least now.
However, a big casualty will be the hearts and minds campaign. Instead
racial differences are likely to dominate the Eastern polity for a
long time in the event of a UNP/SLMC victory.
The Eastern fallout is only the tip of the iceberg. The underlying
fact behind changed demographics in the East is the result of large
scale Tamil internal migration and emigration. Policy makers must take
into account the realities of declining Tamil population both at the
national and regional levels. Going by democratic theorem, along with
the relative numbers should decline the relevance of =91Tamil
aspirations=92. Tamils simply do not have the relative numbers they had
in 1987 and any feasible political solution must reflect this fact.
East=92s ethnic distribution also hints at a possible solution to the
=91ethnic problem=92. Had the governments allowed the East to be mono-
ethnic, Eastern resurgence would never have been possible. Same is
true about the now mono-ethnic North. People of all races must be
allowed, helped and motivated to conquer the North making it
multicultural. That will be the end of Tamil Elam which was nurtured
since 1924 by Tamil racist political elements.
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