Hey iBPOk............
Being that there are a lot of anti-US Indians posting anti-US
propaganda at every chance they get, and that most if not all of these
guys are horribly ignorant of the real world situation, I'd like to
point out a significant issue: with the US economy as the largest in
the world, the recession here is going to spread to all the countries
that feed on the business that we feed to them.
I'd also like to point out to all the ignorant Indians that Japan is
currently looking at a slow, long term economic collapse and all due
to several major fundamental internal problems. In addition to that,
the economy of England is also headed down right now so they are going
to cut back spending, too. All of western Europe is headed for a
trade deficit with China that will be, in about one year, worse than
the US-China trade deficit now.
None of you "smart" Indians is paying attention to the exchange rates
where the Yen and Euro are going up like crazy and the USD going down
like crazy. So, all of you "smart" Indians can watch the USA take back
jobs as the Rs-USD starts to make India's services too expensive to
make offshoring to India worth the trouble. And, in about one year,
Europe is going to do something about their trade deficit with
India/China and then we will see who is laughing.
--------------------------------------
On Thu, 28 Feb 2008 14:36:44 -0800 (PST), indiaBPOking
<indiabpoking@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/worldbiz/archives/2008/02/26/2003402940
>
>ECONOMISTS FORECAST RECESSION: More than half the National
>Association for Business Economics' panelists in a new survey think
>the US will be in recession this year
>
>AP, WA****NGTON
>Tuesday, Feb 26, 2008, Page 10
>
>Job growth is faltering, consumer confidence plunging. The fallout
>from the worst housing slump in a quarter-century grows. Wherever one
>looks, the signs are unmistakable that the US economy is in trouble.
>
>Because of all the bad news, more and more economists foresee the US
>falling into a recession, the latest survey by the National
>Association for Business Economics (NABE) said.
>
>The group said in a re****t released yesterday that 45 percent of the
>economists on its forecasting panel expect a recession this year. In
>September, only one in four economists was pessimistic enough to put
>the chance of a recession at 35 percent or higher.
>
>The drumbeat of bad news since last fall has caused many analysts to
>consider a recession more likely now, said Ellen Hughes-Cromwick,
>chief economist at Ford Motor Co and NABE president.
>
>The survey shows that 55 percent still believe the country will be
>able to skate by without falling into an actual downturn, typically
>defined as two consecutive quarters of declines in the gross domestic
>output. All the analysts, however, expect growth to slow considerably
>this year.
>
>The forecasters believe GDP will expand by 1.8 percent this year,
>which would be the weakest growth in five years. That compares with an
>estimate of 2.5 percent growth for this year made in the previous
>survey, in November.
>
>The new estimate is in line with a downgraded forecast from the
>Federal Reserve last week.
>
>The NABE forecast reflects the expectation the economy will grow only
>sluggishly or actually contract from last month through June. Then it
>is seen starting to expand more strongly in the second half of the
>year. Helping accomplish that is a US$168 billion federal aid plan,
>with its rebate checks for millions of families, and aggressive
>interest rate cuts from the Fed.
>
>The panel of 47 top forecasters thinks "any recession, if it occurs,
>will be short and shallow," Hughes-Cromwick said.
>
>The biggest change in the new survey involves the outlook for interest
>rates.
>
>In November, economists expected the Fed would keep a key rate, the
>federal funds rate, at 4.5 percent through all this year. That rate,
>the target for overnight bank loans, already is at 3 percent, after
>significant cuts by the Fed last month. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has
>indicated that further rate cuts will be coming if the economy fails
>to rebound.
>
>So the NABE experts now predict the funds rate will end this year at
>2.5 percent.
>
>Inflation is expected to moderate greatly this year as the weak
>economy cools price pressures. Inflation shot up by 4.1 percent last
>year, the biggest jump in 17 years.
>
>The Consumer Price Index is forecast to rise by 2.5 percent. That is
>based in part on the NABE panel's view that demand will weaken for oil
>and the barrel price will drop to about US$84 by December. The current
>trend, however, is up; crude oil jumped to all-time highs above US$100
>per barrel over the last week.
>
>The weaker growth will mean higher unemployment, the forecasters say.
>They predict that the jobless rate this year will average 5.2 percent,
>compared with 4.6 percent last year.
>
>Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com and a NABE
>panelist, said he believed the economy entered into a recession in
>December and it will pull out of the downturn in June, aided by the
>rebate checks that begin going out in May.
>
>If problems worsen for the financial industry, hard hit by the housing
>downturn, then Zandi said Wa****ngton will rush through a second rescue
>measure because nervous politicians will not want to be seen as
>dawdling before the November elections.
>
>A second panel member, David Wyss, chief economist at Standard &
>Poor's in New York, also believes the US is now in a recession. While
>he believes the economic aid plan signed by US President George W.
>Bush should make the downturn a mild one, he worries the economy could
>falter again next year.
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