On May 11, 5:13 pm, retrogro...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
> On Sun, 11 May 2008 20:13:20 GMT, "Jeff Strickland"
>
>
>
> <cr...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> ><retrogro...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
> >news:k2ae24d9q78d0usg0g8kf670m4letfcthg@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> >> On Sun, 11 May 2008 16:00:03 GMT, "Jeff Strickland"
> >> <cr...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
>
> >>>IN MY PAPER TODAY ...
>
> >>>The number of homes sold in April was up for the 4th straight month.
The
> >>>median price continues to fall, but the volume of sales is up, and
many
> >>>sales have multiple offers that result in the occasional sale taking
place
> >>>at a point or two above the asking price.
>
> >> You're being duped. Look at the year over year figures. It's a
> >> favorite of these rah rah rags and economic boosters to post seasonal
> >> variations as signs of "recovery". Thus yeah over four months sales
> >> are up. But November sales are always lower than April sales. But
> >> match the year over year by month and it's a very different story.
>
> >> You're in the Boston area?
>
> >No, I not in Boston.
>
> >They are matching year over year sales of the same month a year ago.
>
> That is encouraging. Can you link to the article?
>
> >April
> >and the preceeding three months have posted higher sales than Arpil and
each
> >of the preceeding three months one year ago. That's what the Multiple
> >Listing Service shows.
>
> >This ONLY looks at the number of sales, other factors include the
falling
> >median price and the number of foreclosures persisiting or increasing.
>
> >If they sold the same number of houses in my area at the pace of April
sales
> >and there were no new foreclosures, there would be an 8 month supply of
> >houses to clear out. The picture is far from rosy, but it doesn't suck
quite
> >so badly either.
>
> It would suggest the bottom has been reached locally. Unfortunately
> national figures don't look near that rosey yet and are showing 20%
> year over year
declines.http://www.philly.com/philly/business/breaking/18740174.html
Look, you guys can argue a lot about a few articles in the newspapers
about home sales/price stats and, yes, the guys putting out the stats
are always spinning them at leaat a little, and the guys in control of
the media are spinning, too. But, look at the whole economy. World
and particularly Asia is headed for bigger inflation by quite a bit
(their poor are going to suffer more), and the number one indicators
for the US economy are going to be overall sales figures and
unemployment. My view is that you pay attention to how this plays out
over the rest of the year before throwing your hands up in the air.
Now, the other problem is all this offshoring of US jobs to 3rd world
countries (where the poor are still very poor and also getting poorer,
and the currencies are still cheap). And, while that offshoring is
going on, the "boss" (CEOs, etc) back here is getting the work done
for you at the same high rates, but his costs are going down and his
paycheck getting bigger. eg. WSJ story back a few years ago that
Andersen accounting was ****pping CPA work to Puerto Rico at $12/hour
and charging the US clients something like $110/hour. Pretty good
markup, eh? I'd love to be the middleman.
****p the work over to India, get another couple bucks an hour for the
"clerk" back onshore and couple bucks more for the CEO. Multiply by
thousands, and all of a sudden, that's where US prosperity is at: CEO
wallets.
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