March 26, Bangkok Post
Factions within junta draw battle lines - Larry Jagan
Tomorrow is Army Day in Burma - the moment the country's military leaders
show a united front in a pompous ceremony in the new capital, Naypyidaw,
that is held every year. The junta chief, Senior General Than Shwe, has
im****ted another new Mercedes Benz to stand in as he leads the parade. He
brought a new one in last year for the same occasion.
But underneath this show of unity is the start of a new battle for Burma's
future. This time it is not between the monks and the military, as it was
last year, but between two factions in the army.
In the past few months a major rift has emerged within Burma's military
government over the country's political future. At the centre of the
conflict is who should control the roadmap - Burma 's plans for political
change.
The confrontation is now beginning to take shape _ between those who are
currently in control of Burma's government and the country's economic
wealth, and those who see themselves as the nation's guardians and wish to
protect the country from unscrupulous officials.
The junta is no longer cohesive and united, as two major camps have
clearly emerged. On one side there are the ministers and members of the
State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) who have major business
interests and are associated with Gen Than Shwe's brainchild, the mass
community-based Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA).
On the other side are the top ranking generals _ loosely grouped around
the second in command, General Maung Aye _ who want a professional army
and see its main role as protector of the people.
They have become increasingly dismayed at the corruption within government
and understand that it is undermining the army's future role in the
country.
As the war between these two groups begins to escalate, Gen Than Shwe's
rapidly deteriorating health has effectively left the country without a
real leader. The result is total inertia in government administration and
a growing fear that one of the contesting factions may launch a ''soft
coup'' in the near future, according to Burmese military sources.
But the ''real'' army, as these officers under Gen Maung Aye view
themselves, is going to have to act quickly if it is to remain a force to
be reckoned with.
The planned referendum for May and the election in two years' time will
radically change the country's political landscape.
The USDA, which is organising both the referendum and the elections, will
significantly increase its power and control over the country's new
emerging political process.
Senior members of the army are increasingly resentful of the growing
dominance of the USDA and the likely curtailment of the army's authority
after the May referendum. ''It will bring an abrupt end to the army's
absolute power,'' said a Burmese government official.
At the centre of this emerging battle for supremacy is the growing
division within the army between those who graduated from the Officers
Training School (OTS) like Gen Than Shwe, and those who went to the
Defence Services Academy (DSA) like Gen Maung Aye.
Many cabinet ministers associated with the USDA are from the OTS, as are
several hardliners within the ruling SPDC, though some no longer have
operational commands. These leaders are known to have the ear of Gen Than
Shwe and have convinced him to take an uncompromising stand against
detained opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National
League for Democracy (NLD).
These key ministers, including Industry Minister Aung Thaung, Fisheries
Minister Maung Maung Thein (who is also head of the powerful Myanmar
Investment Commission), Construction Minister Saw Htun and Agriculture
Minister Htay Oo (who is also a key leader of the USDA), are notorious
hardliners and amongst the most corrupt members of the government.
They have all amassed huge personal fortunes from smuggling and kickbacks.
''These fellows are out of control and racking up the money from bribery
and fraud _ not even Maung Aye, who despises excessive corruption, can
touch them,'' a Burmese military source told the Bangkok Post on condition
of anonymity.
Everyone seems powerless to stop them at present, according to Burmese
government sources. ''They are known as 'the Nazis' within the top ranks
of the army,'' according to a Burmese businessman with close links to the
military hierarchy. ''They have the money and they have their own
militia.''
Many in the army now fear that this group _ with some senior officers in
the SPDC, current or former heads of the Bureau of Special Operations
(BSO) _ are planning a grab for power using the USDA as a front. ''They
are the real enemies of the people,'' said the Burmese businessman.
There are growing numbers within the army that are viewing these
developments with increasing concern. There is mounting resentment and
frustration amongst the junior officers in Naypyidaw. Many of the junior
officers are divisional commanders, aged between 47 and 55. These are the
army's ''young Turks'', who are alarmed at the way in which the USDA is
growing in influence at the expense of the army.
''They are watching their unscrupulous colleagues, hiding behind the
uniform, building up massive fortunes from corruption in government and
they are worried that this tarnishes the image of the army,'' said a
source in Naypyidaw.
''It's time to get rid of the OTS bastards,'' an officer recently told a
visiting businessman. But so far there are no signs of a palace coup. Many
officers may feel aggrieved, but there is no open discussion as yet about
doing anything in practice. ''The climate of fear that pervades the whole
country is also prevalent in the military,'' according to a Thai military
intelligence officer.
This resentment is going to continue to simmer. They know that after the
referendum in May their position will become increasingly less
significant, as ministers and selected military generals move into the
USDA and take up civilian roles in the future. At the same time they fear
that widespread corruption will also destroy the country and its political
stability.
''The 'real' army is the only institution that can bring genuine democracy
to the country in the future,'' a military man told the Bangkok Post.
''The new generation of officers represent the real hope for the
country.'' They would be open to a political dialogue with Aung San Suu
Kyi, he insisted, as they see themselves as the real guardians of the
country.
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