May 2, Mizzima News
Burma's referendum: a done deal that may yet unravel - Larry Jagan
On May 10, Burma goes to the polls to vote on a new constitution; a
constitution that very few people have actually seen, and certainly one
which cannot be criticised publicly. The whole process is a farce
according to most independent observers, including the UN official
responsible for monitoring Burma's human rights situation for the last
seven years.
But the new constitution is going to take the country into a significantly
new political era, even if the military leaders remain in power. A period
of massive change is inevitable. It will have major implications for how
the country is governed over the next two years, after which new
multiparty elections are scheduled to be held.
In the meantime the junta is taking no chances with the constitutional
referendum. They are harassing and intimidating voters, using scare
tactics. "The police called on our family last week and told us we had to
vote 'yes' or we'd go to jail for three years," a middle-aged mother in
Rangoon said on condition of anonymity.
"The whole process is surreal - to have a referendum where only those who
are in favor of the constitution can campaign," the former UN Special
Rap****teur for Human Rights in Burma, Paulo Sergio Pinheiro, told Mizzima
in an exclusive interview.
International election monitors have been banned, and it is unlikely that
foreign journalists will be allowed in to re****t on the referendum. Both
these are essential if the referendum is to have any international
credibility, said Professor Pinheiro.
Although international observers were not permitted to observe last years'
constitutional referendum in Thailand, Burma's leaders need them if they
are to convince the world, let alone their own people, that the vote was
legitimate, according to Pinheiro.
"I think it would be unfair to compare the political system in Thailand
with the military government in Myanmar," he said. "After decades without
an election at least international observers could verify the conditions
of the vote. And the UN has a unit that just deals with elections, but the
military government has refused their help."
"To approve the state constitution is a national duty of the entire
people, let us all cast a 'Yes' vote in the national interest," state-run
newspapers have urged ever since the referendum was announced, exactly a
month before the poll.
The government is obviously leaving nothing to chance, and taking every
precaution to ensure the constitution is approved. In fact the government
is hoping for a unanimous vote, though that is inconceivable unless the
results are completely rigged, something which most diplomats in Rangoon
believe is highly likely.
Already there are re****ts of massive irregularities as voters go to the
polls to vote early. Some of the electorate have been given ballot papers
already marked with a 'yes' vote or the 'no' vote blacked out. Some civil
servants in provincial areas were told they had already cast their ballots
when they turned up to vote.
The military government has constantly promised that the voting process
will be transparent - or as they describe it, held in a "systematic and
fair manner." However most analysts believe it will be anything but free
and fair. First of all the public or the opposition will not be allowed to
scrutinise the counting.
General Myint Swe, in charge of military intelligence and detailed by the
top military leader Than Shwe to oversee the vote, recently told a group
of military men and government officials in Rangoon that only the last ten
voters in the polling station when voting closes would be allowed to stay
and witness the actual count.
"These last 10 voters who can monitor the counting of the votes by the
poll commission members (around 15 people) will certainly be members of
the Union Solidarity and Development Association, who Than Shwe has
assigned the task of running the referendum and getting the result he
wants," said Win Min, a Burmese academic at Chiang Mai University.
In fact Burma's military ruler Than Shwe also rebuffed the Thai
government's offer to assist in running the referendum, an offer made
during the Thai Prime Minister's recent visit to the Burmese capital,
according to Thai diplomatic sources.
The junta knows that many people are inclined in fact to use the ballot as
a referendum on the military government, and are unlikely to sup****t the
new constitution. To help control the vote, or more particularly, the
result, the regime is going to make the announcement of the results in the
capital Naypyitaw, and not at each polling station or even provincial
level as happened in the 1990 election, which the pro-democracy parties -
National league for Democracy and Shan Nationalities League for Democracy
- overwhelmingly won.
"This is very different from the 1990 elections, when the election results
were made public at each local polling station," remarked Zin Linn, a
former political prisoner and now spokesman for the Burmese government in
exile. "It means they will be able to manipulate the results to their own
ends."
But the whole referendum process is flawed. An extremely undemocratic
referendum cannot be a step towards multi-party democracy. "It is like the
Thai military seizing power in a coup - as it did in September 2006 - to
preserve democracy," a Burmese academic in Rangoon told Mizzima on
condition of anonymity.
The government is allowing no public debate during this referendum
campaign - only arguments for the constitution are permitted to be heard.
The local media have been forbidden from re****ting the 'no' campaign. The
new constitution cannot be criticised, and anyone who does is liable to be
sentenced to more than ten years jail. Those who recommend a 'no' vote
have been beaten up and more than a hundred young members of Aung San Suu
Kyi's party have now been arrested for wearing T-****rts that say "Vote No"
or handing out leaflets urging electors to vote 'no'.
Undeterred, the NLD is continuing its campaign of opposition to the
constitution. "For the people who have the right to vote, we would like to
encourage again all voters to go to the polling booths and make an 'x'
('No') mark without fear," the NLD urged voters in a statement released to
the press last week. But they conceded the whole process is a sham.
"An intimidating atmosphere for the people is created by physically
assaulting some of the members of (the) NLD," its statement said.
"A referendum without some basic freedoms - of assembly, political parties
and free speech - is a farce. What the Myanmar government calls a process
of democratization is in fact a process of consolidation of an
authoritarian regime," Professor Pinheiro told Mizzima.
The new constitution took the army more than fourteen years to daft. The
actual constitution was only revealed to the public a few weeks ago. It is
on sale at a 1,000 kyat a copy - the equivalent of a dollar in a country
where more than 8 out of ten families live on less than $2 a day. But even
then it is almost impossible to find copies, according to western
diplomats who have been scouring Rangoon for them.
"You don't need to read the constitution to know its simply conferring
power on the military for eternity," said an elderly Burmese academic who
wanted to remain anonymous. "The choice is simple - a vote in favour of
adopting the constitution means we want the military to play the leading
role in politics and run the county," he said.
Under the new constitution the president must be a military man, a quarter
of the parliamentary seats will be nominated by the army chief, key
ministries including defence and interior remain under military control,
and the army reserves the right to oust any civilian administration it
deems to have jeopardised national security.
Detained opposition leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, is effectively barred from
political office because she was married to a foreigner, the eminent
British academic and Buddhist scholar, Michael Aris, who died of prostate
cancer in 1999.
This all makes a mockery of the government's stated aim of moving towards
a multi-party democracy along its seven-stage road map. Burma's second in
command, General Maung Aye, recently told a parade of new recruits that
the constitution would pave the way for democracy.
"Comrades, it is the Tatmadaw [military] that is constantly striving for
the emergence of a constitution capable of shaping the multi-party
democratic system," he told the army recruits last week.
But legal experts and human rights activists insist the Burmese military
have got it topsy-turvy. Real democracy needs to be nurtured, including
freeing all political prisoners from jail, allowing political parties to
operate normally, guaranteeing freedom of the press and having an
independent judiciary. This is certainly not the case in Burma.
Professor Pinheiro, who has visited Burma many times since he was first
appointed UN Human Rights Rap****teur for Burma in 2000, is completely
flabbergasted.
"I've been following political transitions throughout the world, including
Asia for more than thirty years, and I am yet to see a successful
transition to democracy without a previous phase of liberalism," he said.
There isn't the faintest sign of that yet in the case of Myanmar."
In the seven-step roadmap outlined by Khin Nyunt when he was Prime
Minister, the step before the referendum was a period of liberalisation
and consolidation. This was when political prisoners were to be given a
general amnesty, political parties allowed to resume normal activities -
including the opening of all currently shut offices, and community
organisations permitted to flourish. Instead, Than Shwe has conveniently
skipped over this crucial step.
But if the regime is going to move towards multi-party democracy in the
next two years, they will have to resurrect this phase or face a major
dilemma after the referendum. The current ministers, many of whom have
already been assigned positions in the new civilian administrations that
are to emerge after the elections, will have to resign from the government
if they are going to run in the forthcoming elections.
The junta will have to seriously consider forming a transitional
government -- political parties have to be given a measure of freedom to
function properly, especially if they are to campaign in the elections
planned for 2010, as has already been announced.
"The junta will find itself in the same position as the Thai coup leaders
did in September 2006, they will have to install a neutral administration
to oversee the so-called transition to multi-party democracy," said a
Burmese academic. "And in today's Burma that will be a tall order. The
most sensible thing for them to do would be to engage the NLD and offer a
power sharing arrangement - something Than Shwe at least will never
contemplate."
Unfortunately these steps are certain to be substantially delayed if there
is a significant "no" vote in next week's referendum. For although the
real count may not be made public, the top leaders will know they do not
have the sup****t of the majority of the Burmese people. This could lead to
the top generals going back to the drawing board, even if the referendum
is already a done deal. For they would finally know what most Burmese know
already - the military rulers are hated by everyone - even by foot
soldiers, junior officers and their families.
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