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Guatemala: Solidarity or Zero Tolerance?
Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit
IPS - Nov 2, 2007
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=39899
ELECTIONS-GUATEMALA:
Solidarity or Zero Tolerance?
By In(c)s Bentez
GUATEMALA CITY, Nov 2 (IPS) - Guatemalas costly and violent
presidential election campaign will come to an end with Sundays runoff
vote, in which retired General Otto P(c)rez and his tough stance on crime
will face off with businessman lvaro Colom, who has put an emphasis on
extending a helping hand of solidarity to the poor.
Colom, of the centre-left National Union of Hope (UNE), won the first
round on Sept. 9 with 28 percent of the vote, and P(c)rez, of the
rightwing Patriotic Party (PP), came in second with 23.5 percent.
Two polls published Wednesday by the Prensa Libre newspaper gave P(c)rez
the edge, forecasting wins for the conservative candidate of 53 to 47
percent and 52 to 48 percent, respectively. But in survey results
released Monday by El Peridico, Colom had 39 percent ratings and P(c)rez
35 percent.
The PP candidate enjoys stronger sup****t in the capital, while Colom is
more popular in the countrys predominantly indigenous rural areas.
Officially, Guatemalas native ethnic groups make up 41 percent of the
population, although non-governmental organisations put the pro****tion
closer to 65 percent. The rest of the population is basically of
mixed-race (European and indigenous) heritage, with a tiny white
minority.
"Guatemala must be the only country in the world where a campaign
slogan like ~mano dura (strong hand or iron fist) can so quickly
become attractive that a candidate can turn voting patterns around in
just a couple of months," Alfonso Gumucio, an expert on communication
for development, told IPS. "It shows that peoples fear is greater than
their desire for social change."
In this Central American country of 13 million, where the official
poverty rate is 51 percent (although unofficial estimates put the
figure at around 80 percent), P(c)rezs promise to get tough on crime has
been welcomed by a populace fed up with violence and at the mercy of
youth gangs and organised crime, which has penetrated state
institutions.
Extortion rackets keep people in fear and force many to flee their
homes and jobs. Only 25 percent of crimes are re****ted to the
authorities, who investigate a minute pro****tion of these, and an even
smaller fraction are prosecuted.
Guatemala has one of the highest per capita murder rates in the world.
According to the Human Rights Ombudsmans Office, 2,857 homicides were
committed in the first half of 2007, most of them with firearms.
The two candidates take different approaches to the soaring violence.
P(c)rez promises "mano dura against crime," by declaring a state of
emergency, for instance, while Colom talks of "a hand outstretched in
solidarity" and of "national unity", putting the priority on social
policies to fight poverty.
Both Colom and P(c)rez, however, are in favour of maintaining the death
penalty.
In the view of political analyst Pedro Trujillo, the main challenge for
the next president, who will govern the country from 2008 to 2012, will
be "to keep their campaign pledges." He said that both candidates "have
focused on the need to solve the security problems as soon as possible."
Colom, who is standing for the third time, and P(c)rez, running for the
first time, have both promised to restructure and purge the state
security forces.
On Sept. 26, Julio Hern!ndez Ch!vez resigned as chief of the National
Civil Police after two of his bodyguards were accused of the murders of
five suspected drug traffickers, who had been seized some days
previously while playing football in a crime-ridden Guatemala City
barrio.
To help investigate infiltration by organised crime in state
institutions, an International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala
(CICIG) will begin work in January -- the result of an agreement signed
in 2006 by President "scar Berger and the United Nations.
The current election campaign is regarded as the most violent in the
past 20 years, with over 50 people killed, including candidates for
different offices, party activists and family members.
On Oct. 8 the secretary of the parliamentary PP bench, Aura Salazar,
was murdered, and three days later the UNE campaign manager, Jos(c)
Carlos Marroqun, resigned saying he had received threats from the
mafias.
Gumucio said the campaign had been especially violent, "not only in
terms of the verbal attacks, but in terms of the killings of people
linked to the two parties competing in the second round."
The analyst regretted that "violent death has become a routine feature
of everyday life, in Guatemala more than in any other country."
Mutual accusations between the candidates and smear campaigns were also
common currency.
P(c)rez alleged that Colom received financing from drug trafficking
mafias, while the UNE candidate pointed out that his rival was an army
officer during the 1960-1996 civil war that left over 200,000 dead,
mainly rural indigenous civilians.
"The only country in the Americas to have experienced genocide may
elect a military candidate" after two decades of civilian government,
said Gumucio.
Trujillo said the mudslinging campaign has been "fierce but often
convincing. Although many of the attacks are false and are often
personal, there are signs of financing by criminal elements, which have
not been satisfactorily explained away, and this troubles people."
Besides, the fact that the candidates have not held a public debate is
an indication of Guatemalas "lack of political maturity," he added.
Last week P(c)rez refused to join Colom in a televised debate because of
his rivals "verbal attacks and aggression." The UNE leader, for his
part, accused P(c)rez of "offending" his wife and children.
Analysts consulted by IPS said that the abstention rate, which was over
40 percent in the first round, would be even higher in the runoff. This
has happened in elections in the past, as a result of the apathy of an
electorate which has no great expectations of either candidate.
The slanging matches and lack of serious debate between the candidates
"discourage voters who are not politically committed, and sow doubt
among those who had already made up their mind how to vote," Iduvina
Hern!ndez, head of the non-governmental organisation Security in
Democracy (SEDEM), told IPS.
"The campaign has not been aimed in the slightest at voters; rather,
both parties have been obsessed with canvassing mayors and legislators
who could deliver mass votes," Trujillo said.
Political analyst Gustavo ****ras said the low percentages of the vote
garnered by Colom and P(c)rez in the first round reflects the
electorates disillusion with the political party system. The 300,000
null and blank ballots cast represented a "protest vote" and
demonstrated the existence of "a social conscience," he maintained.
This campaign has also differed from others in the past because of the
huge amounts spent on publicity and advertising, and "the tendency for
the rhetoric to be markedly conservative," Hern!ndez said.
Coloms campaign posters show people holding their thumbs together and
spreading their hands in the shape of doves, contrasting with the
raised fist of P(c)rez, the "mano dura" candidate.
On Sunday Guatemalans will choose one of these images. But according to
Trujillo, the new president who takes office on Jan. 14 will not have a
strong mandate, because of the low expected turnout. "He will not have
much legitimacy, and will have to fight to earn the trust of the rest
of the electorate," he said. (END/2007)
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