The red hurricane begins to sweep through Venezuela

Following Chavez's call to not "leave the streets for one single day in
the 27 days that remain" of the campaign to approve the proposed
constitutional reform, the Yes campaign has kicked into gear. Within
the space of a week there has been a dramatic change in the mood here
in Caracas, as the "red hurricane" has unleashed itself across
Venezuela. In the eye of the storm are the PSUV militants, members of
the new United Socialist Party of Venezuela, who are the motor force
behind the campaign

One got a really sense of this ****ft in the mood last Sunday, when
Chavistas gathered at the air****t and along the drive to Miraflores to
greet the president returning from his battle in Chile. Whilst the
majority went to the air****t to greet him, I stayed with some of the
activists from my local socialist battalion (the grassroots units of
the PSUV) to hold up signs along one of the main street which Chavez
would drive down.

Holding up Yes signs, and with music comprised of revolutionary songs
and campaign tunes, we talked to passerbys, as cars pulled up to grab
posters to stick on the side the car and on their windscreen. Horns
beeped, and drivers and passengers yelled "Si, Si", and "Que vive
Chavez". We danced, and talked and gave away posters for several hours,
with a continuous flow of traffic, with more and more of the cars
drving by covered in red posters or with red flags waving, beeping up
and down the main avenue.

This was a sharp change from earlier in the week. On Wednesday, an
opposition students march went through Caracas. Unlike the one the week
before this time there was no violent acts by the students during the
march, but clearly some of them were looking to help create tensions
and violence. Not content with a simple march those students returned
to the Central University of Venezuela (UCV) and began to attack
chavista students. They ended up surround students in the social work
department, throwing rocks at the windows and burning the doors and a
nearby bus, with some 150 students inside with no avenue to escape.

In some respects, this march seems to have marked a the end of any real
opposition campaign. It came on the back of a sizeable rally the
Saturday before and the surprising announcement by ex-Minister of
Defence, Raul Baduel, called on people to opposed the reforms. However,
the march laid bare that the opposition was running out of steam, and
despite the media spin, very few did not have an impression of the
opposition students as fascist thugs. The Saturday just gone, the
opposition organised a dismal march, and two days later around 50
people turned up to their "mass mobilisation" to block of city streets.
What little base they had which they could mobilise seems to have
become demoralised or put off by the opposition campaign.

On reflection of this was the second public declaration by Baduel this
Monday just gone. Besides essentially repeating his last speech he had
two new points to note: firstly, he was not longer just calling for a
No vote, but asking for the reform to be withdraw (having realised that
a No vote would not win) and secondly he at least tried to sound like
he was still in the Bolivarian camp.

Whilst it is true that someone with the stand that Baduel has within
chavismo could have really caused a stir, most people I have talked to
agree that his first speech was so similar to that of the opposition
that it impact amongst grassroots chavistas was tiny. If anything it
further spurred them on to campaign for Yes, as they saw that their
president could for the first time in a while possibly face some stiff
competition.

In contrast, tens and hundreds of thousands have flocked to the Yes
cavalcades that have been organised across the country. No matter where
you go in Caracas, you cannot but walk past people in red handing out
the constitutional reform, encouraging everyone to read them and vote.

During the afternoon of that same Sunday when Chavez returned from
Chile I had once again attended one of my local socialist battalions,
where local activists were discussing the Yes campaign. Here everyone
was clear on the necessity to win the biggest vote possible, and what
it would require.

One of the participants pointed out that in the last week or so cooking
gas had suddenly become very hard to find. Discussion quickly moved to
how to deal with this. One man explained that the government had
nationalised a number of gas distribution companies but not the one
that supplied this area. A woman recalled how they had survived the 2
months bosses lockout at the end of 2002 without cooking gas, and how
this was clearly part of the opposition plan to provoke discontent but
it wouldn't work because the community was more conscious and organised
now.

The battalion, in a demonstration of the powerful dynamic that has
emerged from these meetings of local revolutionaries, resolved to
organise a meeting with other local battalions, community councils and
gas workers to debate the problem out and seek a solution - including
demanding nationalisation if necessary.

In the process of explaining how the battalions would be structured for
the purposes of the campaign, the local organiser got a call to say
that Chavez would be arriving back to Venezuela soon and that we should
go and greet him on the streets (where I live is between the air****t
and Miraflores, through which the president would have to travel).

A discussion began: what to do. Everyone was aware of what had happened
in Chile, the dignified actions of Chavez and the provocation by the
King of Spain. Chavez had spoken for the majority of the world at that
summit and we all felt we need to let him know that we were behind him.
But discussion had not finished on the organisation of the battalion
for the campaign. In the end the decision was to finish this discussion
as it was crucial for the next few weeks of campaigning and that as
soon as possible we would mobilise to greet Chavez.

The spokesperson from the battalion explained how the restructure would
occur, incor****ating discussions that had happened in the socialist
cir***scription (which group together 10 battalions). A problem arose:
the cir***scription had reorganised itself along the lines that were
first sent down from the national promoters committee. This was later
changed (due in part to the fact that local experience had shown it
would not work out) meaning their the local battalion was stuck between
still having the old structure at the cir***scription level, with less
activists available at the local level to fill the designated spots on
the command which are made up of elected heads of commissions. The
battalion resolved that one of the activists elected to be part of the
campaign structure and the cir***scription level would be integrated
into the local battalion structure instead.

Once ready we parted for the streets, not before an announcement was
made that each day at 3pm activists would be meeting to go door
knocking and cover the area in Yes material, and that next Sunday there
would be a cultural act in the main plaza organised by the local PSUV
cir***scription. There a tent would be set up for those with questions
about the reform to find out more and get information.

Later, speaking to some the activists they noted that one problem they
had continually come up against was that in many cases the general
lines coming from above did not fit the reality of what was occurring
below. This had create unnecessary confusion, but that over time this
was being resolved and that the grassroots were making their presence
felt.

On Wednesday, I tagged along with activists from another battalion, this
time in 23 de Enero, as they went around their local neighbourhood door
to door to distribute the reform. As they were quick to point out they
were not just any battalion, but the one that Chavez belonged to. As is
usually the case, the overwhelming majority were women, ready to hit to
streets to defend the revolution.

The response was once again overwhelming "Si, Si", although this perhaps
should not have been so surprising given 23 de Enero is a militantly
chavista area. With each positive response the group would break out
into song, singing one of the many campaign tunes which echoed through
the streets, in some cases with other neighbours joining in.

My sense has been that many of those who only a week ago had doubt on
the reform or where unsure, have now come solidly into the Yes camp.
Seeing the true face of what an opposition victory would mean with the
violence at UCV, and the impact of the red hurricane that has been
unleashed, the Yes cavalcades and the Chavez's intervention in Chiles,
many have begun to be swept along.

However there is still a dangerous road ahead. Key is ensuring that the
biggest possible vote is obtained. The course of the Venezuelan
revolutionary process has been one of attempting to legitimise every
further step forward by the m***** with a democratic mandate emanating
from the ballot box. Perhaps like no other this referendum aims to be a
gateway through which the m***** want to drive though in order to give
the revolution a massive impulse forward. Each side understands what is
at stake, hence the reaction of the right wing opposition, the
conservative elements of the chavista camp and the revolutionary m*****
headed by Chavez.

Whilst there is much to be optimistic about given the beginning of the
campaign, this also means that Venezuela has entered into a new more
dangerous phase. I think even the opposition know they will lose, but
they also know that perhaps more is at stake now than in any other
electoral process until now. This means they will try everything -
including acts of violence and terrorism - to try and impede the
referendum going ahead. They also want to affect the vote to help
create the basis to prolong their campaign post the referendum, basing
themselves on the spurious argument of adding no votes and abstention
to justify their "real" sup****t. That is why local activists here are
preparing themselves for an possible action, all the while remaining
alert and on the streets.
                                 *
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