-----BEGIN PGP SIGNED MESSAGE-----
Hash: SHA1
Venezuela - Datanalisis Prez admits his own poll not valid
Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit
[As VIO predicted yesterday or the day before... NYTr]
Steven L. Robinson - activ-l
Common Dreams - Nov 30, 2007
http://www.commondreams.org/news2007/1130-12.htm
Venezuela: Datanalisis Pollster Dismisses the Firm's Own Poll
Statement Implies that Datanalisis Poll is Not Valid
Wa****ngton, DC - November 30 - In an interview made available Wednesday,
November 28, the head of a widely-cited polling firm contradicted his
firm's own findings that had suggested a majority of likely voters
would vote against proposed constitutional changes favored by
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.
In an interview with Reuters posted online yesterday, [See below] Luis
Vicente Leon, a pollster for Datanalisis stated, "The most probable
[projection] is that there will be no surprise and Chavez will win 60
percent against 40 percent."
Datanalisis' prior survey has been the most widely cited poll in the
international media in the run-up to Sunday's referendum. The poll,
conducted on behalf of private businesses, and re****ted in the media on
November 24, re****ted that "about 49 percent of likely voters oppose the
reforms while 39 percent favor."
Vicente Leon's statements directly contradict the results of the poll.
If the 60/40 projection is correct, CEPR calculated that the odds of
obtaining the prior poll result - i.e. 49 percent of respondents saying
no -- would be one in two billion trillion.
"As a statistical matter, Mr. Vicente Leon's remarks can be considered
an admission that his previous poll was not valid," said CEPR
Co-Director Mark Weisbrot.
CEPR had warned just yesterday that dubious or fake polls might be used
to influence public perceptions during the election.
***
Reuters - Nov 28, 2007
http://www.reuters.com/article/reutersEdge/idUSDIS85641820071128
Chavez's reforms not as popular as the president: Pollster Leon
by Reuters
Chavez has not managed to validate his constitutional reforms with a
large majority, which has happened in elections that are votes for him.
It is obvious that the popularity of the president, above 60 percent,
is not at risk here. But the proposal is not so popular as elements of
the Chavez camp are rejecting it and are concerned about it.
It is difficult to make an electoral projections because the numbers of
abstentions and undecided voters are high, the perfect ground for a
surprise. The most probable is that there will be no surprise and Chavez
will win 60 percent against 40 percent, but technically there is a
possibility that it could happen, which is something that has not
existed before.
The key abstentions will be not from the opposition, but from the
Chavistas who are not part of the hard-core nucleus, who sup****t
Chavez, but who don't like the proposals. But they are not defined yet.
They believe it would be betrayal, they believe that voting "No" is
voting for the opposition or that voting "No" will allow the opposition
to take advantage to try to remove Chavez from power. So in this
scenario, they prefer to abstain.
While Chavez has 62 percent popularity, the reforms have 34.9 percent.
So it is more im****tant that Chavez use his strength and sell Chavez
sup****ters the idea that they are voting for him, for his continuation,
rather than for the reforms themselves. And we see that in the
propaganda, the campaign is "Yes means Chavez" or "Continue on with
Chavez".
*
=================================================================
NY Transfer News Collective * A Service of Blythe Systems
Since 1985 - Information for the Rest of Us
Our main website: http://www.blythe.org
List Archives: http://blythe-systems.com/pipermail/nytr/
Subscribe: http://blythe-systems.com/mailman/listinfo/nytr
=================================================================
-----BEGIN PGP SIGNATURE-----
Version: GnuPG v1.4.7 (FreeBSD)
iD8DBQFHUekciz2i76ou9wQRAjLEAJ49bKQ7K8q0lFSTF2ic/gHogEGT5gCgitWw
IYZ0srid6QIF3Nq+aj9te50=
=+xFJ
-----END PGP SIGNATURE-----
|
