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South Africa Votes:
Via NY Transfer News Collective * All the News that Doesn't Fit
IPS News - Dec 19, 2007
http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=40525
SOUTH AFRICA:
Mbeki - 1,505 Votes. Zuma - 2,329 Votes
Analysis by Stephanie Nieuwoudt
CAPE TOWN, Dec 18 (IPS) - It was, metaphorically speaking, dirty and
very bloody. But the campaign leading up to the national conference of
the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in Polekwane, north-east
South Africa -- where Jacob Zuma was elected president of the party,
Tuesday -- was democracy in its rawest form.
"The fact that the presidency was contested is a compliment for
democracy," Harald Pakendorf, an independent political analyst, told
IPS.
However, he warned that unless Zuma and head of state Thabo Mbeki, from
whom power as party leader was wrested, managed their differences,
South Africa would be characterised by political and economic
difficulties until the general election in 2009.
"If these two leaders do not resolve the conflict, it will prevent the
ANC to move forward as a united front. It will undoubtedly have a
negative impact on the economy, as investors do not like instability,"
said Pakendorf.
"Although the ANC has a long tradition of standing together, it is the
first time ever that two major candidates have openly slung mud at each
other to the extent we have seen in this election race. However, major
decisions are not made by the party leader in isolation. They are made
by the ANC collective."
Pakendorf added that while economic changes were expected under Zuma --
now in a position to become head of state in 2009 -- these ****fts had
already begun during Mbeki's leader****p of the ANC.
"The state has already started playing a more prominent role in the
economy]The economic swing to the left has therefore already started
happening. Although Zuma has emphasised the need for the creation of
job op****tunities, there have already been inroads made in this regard."
More radical changes, notes another independent analyst, Max du Preez,
are not on the cards.
"Zuma has been working extremely hard these past few months to assure
foreign and local investors that the economy will not be changed.
However, it remains to be seen what will happen. Zuma is not really an
ideologist. He does not really have inclinations to the left, and
because of this he will not make huge changes."
In a state of the nation address on Sunday, Mbeki told delegates to the
ANC's 52nd national conference that poverty levels had dropped sharply
since 1994, which marked the advent of democracy in South Africa.
However he admitted that although there was progress in the reduction
of poverty, the growth of incomes of the wealthy had been rapid,
leading to a huge gap between rich and poor. The high unemployment
amongst the youth was also daunting.
Certain observers, among them political philosopher Willie Esterhuyse,
have said that Zuma's sup****ters see him as a messiah who will bring
about accelerated social and economic reforms.
Steven Friedman, political analyst at the Institute for Democracy in
South Africa, rejects this assertion. "The Zuma sup****t is not about
looking for a messiah, but it is a rebellion against Mbeki and a
certain leader****p style."
Friedman agrees with Pakendorf that unless the differences between the
two men are sorted out, there will be instability on many fronts -- and
adds that uncertainty about corruption allegations against Zuma will
add to the general sense of insecurity in the country.
The acrimony between Zuma and Mbeki started years ago due to a variety
of factors, and erupted when the head of state sacked Zuma as
vice-president of the country in 2005 following the corruption
accusations, linked to a multi-million dollar arms deal. The new ANC
leader could still be charged in this matter.
Amidst conspiracy theories that Mbeki may unduly influence a decision
by the National Prosecuting Authority on whether to take Zuma to court,
du Preez says that if Zuma is prosecuted this could lead to unrest.
"However, South Africans are much less politicised than during the
1980s and 1990s. We have a strong black middle class in this country,
which does not want to see violence."
There have been re****ts that Zuma will want to force a vote of no
confidence in Mbeki in order to move forward the date of the general
election. But, Friedman doubts that this will happen.
"Zuma will need 201 of 294 ANC members of parliament to agree to this.
It means over 70 percent of the ANC will have to vote against Mbeki. I
do not see this happening."
According to Susan Booysen, president of the South African Association
of Political Studies, the choice of Zuma for ANC president will not
really have an influence on South Africa's relation****p with the West.
"South Africa is not a power broker in the West as it is in Africa, and
as long as South Africa is seen as a stable economy which offers safe
trade possibilities (it) will not suffer too big a knock regarding its
relation****p with the rest of the world."
The vote for Zuma will be welcomed by the rest of Africa, says du Preez.
"Zuma has huge sup****t in Mozambique and Angola, from where he received
huge amounts of money. Many African countries are not positive about
Mbeki. Some of the leaders are jealous of Mbeki and regard him as a
black Englishman -- not one of the African brothers -- while Zuma is
regarded as a true brother."
However, du Preez predicts that there will be pressure from the
Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist
Party, both in alliance with the ANC, for the party to take a stronger
stand against Robert Mugabe. The Zimbabwean president has clamped down
on union officials in his country.
"If he bows to this pressure, it will make him less popular amongst
African leaders who do not want to act against Mugabe."
Activist and writer Ashwin Desai believes that the leader****p contest
has had a number of positive outcomes; these include making the
"ordinary person much more aware of politics."
"There is a greater interest in what takes place in the corridors of
power. It has created a safer and more transparent Mbeki. He has been
seriously bruised by the power struggle," he told IPS.
"It is good when two bulls fight. It gives one a chance to see the size
of their horns. It is good when there is conflict for the public
good." (END/2007)
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