Fear and Loathing in Bolivia

"Lets go unblock the road, compaeros!" a man in an old baseball cap
yells as he joins a group of people hauling rocks and tires from a
central intersection in Cochabamba. This group of students and union
activists are mobilizing against a civic strike led by middle class
foot soldiers of the Bolivian right. These actions in the street are
part of a political roller coaster which is dramatically changing
Bolivia as it enters the new year.

Two major developments marked the close of the year in Bolivia: the
passage of a new constitution and the worsening of political
polarization in the country. The new constitution reflects the
socialistic policies advocated by indigenous president Evo Morales,
while racism, regional and political divisions still threaten to push
Bolivia into a larger conflict.

In the final weeks of 2007, a variety of protest tactics were used by
political factions to advocate competing visions for the future of the
country. From November 24-25, clashes between security forces and
opposition protesters in Sucre left three people dead and hundreds
wounded, forcing the assembly rewriting the countrys constitution to
move to Oruro. Anarchists dressed in black and pounding drums marched
against racism in Cochabamba, while older Bolivians in La Paz organized
rallies in support of a new pension plan. In the town of Achacachi,
Aymara indigenous leaders sacrificed two dogs in a ceremony declaring
war on the wealthy elite in Santa Cruz.

Santa Cruz is a department with a capital city of the same name and is
the center of the rights growing movement against the Morales
government. The Bolivian right is led by four right wing governors in
the eastern departments of Beni, Pando, Santa Cruz and Tarija, civic
committees, business and land owners, and the political party
Democratic and Social Power (PODEMOS). The right organized various
civic strikes throughout 2007, while supporters of the Movement Toward
Socialism, (MAS, the political party of Morales), also flexed their
political muscle in protests, blockades and strikes. Though government
and media battles often carve new policies and shape debates, street
mobilizations remain a vital part of Bolivian politics.

Transformation Through a New Constitution?

On December 8-9, MAS assembly participants and their allies passed the
new constitution in Oruro. Opposition party members boycotted the
meeting. Representatives of neighborhood councils, mining unions, coca
growers unions, student and farmer groups mobilized in Sucre to defend
the assembly from right wing intervention. Activists blew up dynamite
to intimidate political opponents while assembly participants chewed
coca to stay awake throughout the weekend-long gathering.

The new constitution paves the way for many of the changes the
government has been working toward since Morales was elected in 2005.
The document gives the state greater control over natural resources and
the economy, and guarantees expanded autonomy for departmental
governments and indigenous communities. It also calls for a mixed
economy, where the rights of private, public and communal industries
are protected. Indigenous community justice systems are better
recognized through the new constitution and the document establishes
that Supreme Court judges are to be elected instead of appointed by
congress. The constitution also lifts the block on second consecutive
terms for the president. This change would allow Morales to run again
for two more terms in a row, in addition to his current time in office.

Though it was passed in the assembly in Oruro, the new constitution
still has to be approved in a national referendum along with a vote on
an article on land reform which is still in dispute. This controversial
article puts a limit on private ownership of land to 100,000 hectares.
Such a policy would greatly impact large land holdings in the
department of Santa Cruz and other regions. On top of these challenges
will be the difficulty of actually implementing these policy changes
which so far only exist on paper.

Rightwing assembly members from PODEMOS, civic leaders and governors
announced that they will not recognize the new constitution as it was
passed without their support. MASs take on this, as represented by
Bolivian Vice President Alvaro Garcia Linera, is that the light-skinned
elite do not want to give up any of their privileges. Linera told the
Los Angeles Times that these elites "have to understand that the state
is no longer a prolongation of their haciendas [estates.]"

As a way out of the tense divisions, Morales announced that a
referendum would be held in 2008 on his presidency and all
governorships. In this referendum, which is scheduled to happen
sometime before September 2008, Morales established a rule that he has
to receive over 54% of votes " what he received when elected president
in 2005 " supporting his presidency to remain in office. If he doesnt
receive this support, he is to hold elections within 90-120 days. At
the same time, there will be a referendum on whether the governors will
stay in office. If the governors do not receive more votes than they
did when they were elected in 2005, then they can be replaced by an
interim governor of Morales choosing until the next elections.

This referendum could be a way for Morales to strengthen his own
mandate, while weakening the right. Though criticism among Morales
base of support has increased recently, when given a choice between
supporting the right and Morales, this large voter group would likely
vote for Morales. There is also a lack of alternatives to Morales among
the Bolivian left. A massive voter registration drive, largely in rural
areas, launched by the Morales administration is also likely to play
into the presidents favor in this referendum. A recent poll conducted
by Ipsos Apoyo, Opinin y Mercado showed that 56% of the population
currently approves the performance of Morales.

The Right and New Polarization

Shortly after Morales announced plans for the referendum, the right
made another bold announcement which made political negotiations even
more unlikely. On December 15, right wing leaders in Santa Cruz
declared autonomy from the central government. Leaders announced the
creation of Santa Cruz ID cards, a television station and its own
police force; the Bolivian national police force will no longer be
recognized. In addition, the autonomy declaration establishes that 2/3
of taxes from the oil and gas industry in that department will remain
in Santa Cruz, rather than going to the central government. Expanded
autonomy for four of the opposition led, resource rich, departments
would further threaten the stability of the Morales government.

Meanwhile, strikes, road blockades and protests have been organized
among all political factions and violence has often erupted throughout
what has been a turbulent end to the year. There have been
approximately eight political bombings in Bolivia in 2007. Most of
these incidents involved dynamite or grenades, and the majority of them
were against leftist unions or MAS party officials.

Morales and his opponents have shown interest in meeting to negotiate
some kind of compromise. Such a meeting was put at risk when on
December 31 right wing leaders said they threw the new constitution
into the garbage. Morales responded by saying that their autonomy
statute should be thrown in the garbage. These declarations are likely
to further erode relations between political opponents and increase
division in the country.

A government plan to redirect gas industry taxes from departmental
governments into a national pension plan has resulted in outcries from
the right, and praise from MAS supporters. This pension, called the
Dignity Salary, was approved in congress on November 27 without many
opposition members present. The pension plan gives Bolivians over age
60 approximately $26 per month. The funds, which are to be an estimated
$215 million annually, would be redirected from current gas tax funds
which had previously gone to departmental governments. Right wing
governors protested the pension, demanding that this redirected tax
money stay in their departments.

Another of the rights criticisms of the Morales administration is that
the presidents policies are bad for business and international
relations. Recent events and reports prove otherwise. On January 1, the
government announced that in 2007 the Bolivian economy grew by 4.2%,
which is more than the 1.7% growth in 2001 when Jorge Tuto Quiroga was
vice president of the country. Quiroga, of PODEMOS, is a key leader of
the current opposition against Morales.

In mid-December, Brazilian president Luiz In!cio Lula da Silva and
Chilean president Michelle Bachelet met with Morales in Bolivia to show
their support for his government and the new constitution. The three
heads of state negotiated a plan to develop a $600 million highway from
Santos, Brazil, across Bolivia and to sea ports in Arica, Chile. During
the same visit, the Brazilian hydrocarbon company Petrobras announced
it would invest up to $1 billion to further develop the Bolivian gas
industry.

Morales also cut a deal with a South Korean company to collaborate with
Bolivian state-owned COMIBOL to exploit a copper mine in Corocoro,
outside La Paz. On December 21, Bolivian foreign minister David
Choquehuanca, during a visit in Beijing, announced proposals for
Chinese investment in Bolivian telecommunications, transportation,
hydrocarbons and minerals. Though specific deals with China were not
discussed, Choquehuanca told Reuters that "We need investment but we
need investment that gets us out of poverty, not investment that strips
our natural resources and leaves us poor."

Last November, in the cold lobby of a museum in La Paz, Bolivian vice
president Garcia Linera arrived late to a panel on political change in
Latin America. It was raining heavily in the Bolivian capital and the
political crisis threatened to tear the country apart. Throughout the
presentation, Linera left the panel to field numerous cell phone calls.
When he finally commented on the polarization and conflicts in the
country, he warned about the risk of widespread division, and said this
moment of "bifurcation" is "much closer than it appears." He spoke of
how the "new state is consolidating itself" and how the right may
"gradually accommodate" itself to these changes. Yet, he warned, the
right could also work to block the governments changes to revert to a
past balance of power, which could create more tension. As Bolivia
enters the new year, this tension is more present than ever.

Bolivia ended 2007 with more questions than answers about the future of
the nation. Will the government be able to transform the state into
something useful for a majority of Bolivians? What role will the social
movements of Bolivia play in pushing for radical change? Will the
policies in the new constitution be applied in effective ways? Though
many of these issues may not be resolved in 2008, the good news is that
Bolivia is directly addressing these critical questions.

[Benjamin Dangl is the author of "The Price of Fire: Resource Wars and
Social Movements in Bolivia", (AK Press, 2007).  Photos by Dangl.
Email: Bendangl(at)gmail.com .]

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