On Mar 13, 11:17=A0am, "J.Venning" <J.Venn...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> <bmo...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote in message
>
>
news:5af4e7be-d97c-4637-908a-ca8e0eae5974@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>h=
ttp://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/12/world/asia/12taiwan.html?ref=3Dworld
> > TAIPEI, Taiwan -- No matter who wins Taiwan's fiercely contested
> > presidential election on March 22, the fervent independence movement
> > that has so agitated relations with mainland China in recent years
> > seems destined to suffer a significant setback.
> > Both candidates, Ma Ying-jeou and Frank Hsieh, want closer ties with
> > Beijing, differing only in how quickly and to what degree they would
> > strengthen relations. By calling for closer economic cooperation with
> > China and rejecting any notions of separatism, they are repudiating
> > the tough nationalist policies of the departing president, Chen Shui-
> > bian, whose confrontational stance has angered officials in Beijing
> > and Wa****ngton and has stirred anxiety among many Taiwanese.
>
> =A0 =A0 I cannot envisage an "independent" Taiwan as a "country" totally
r=
ipped
> away from China. The Chinese people as a whole on both sides of the
Strait=
s
> will not allow it.
Probably not. The biggest threat is the people in the south of Taiwan
(where Chen is from) who have never had much connection to mainland
China.
> On the other hand, neither can I envisage Taiwan's giving
> up her decades' having achieved a democratic form of government away
from
> Communism. The Chinese government is not unaware of this, and will take
al=
l
> measures to avoid any form of military confrontation to unite Taiwan
with
> China, unless of course they were to be pushed too far by the extremists
w=
ho
> clamour for "independence". I can foresee an even greater economic
> cooperation between China and Taiwan to the point of Taiwan's being
> dependent on China, at which point, the Chinese government will propose
a
> concept of "One China, Two Governments", allowing Taiwan to have her own
> form of autonomous government, but giving up the identity of being a
> separate entity in the global recognition of China. Unfortunately we
also
> have to take into consideration foreign intervention, which can prevent
th=
is
> from happening.
> J.
I more or less agree. Economic partner****p is the key. But the
toughest thing I think will be getting the Taiwanese to consent to the
PRC handling their defense. We are a long way from that and I expect
it will require fairly major changes, given that for many years all of
the military defense mechanisms I observed in Taiwan (all major
bridges into Taipei have 24/7 military protection, for example) were
geared to defending *against* the PRC. An attack is much less likely
than it was when I was there, but the 2 sides still have much to work
out.
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