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Reframing China Policy: The Carnegie Debates E-mail
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Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Please check below for dates and topics of each debate. Please check
back for updates.
The rise of China presents one of the most im****tant global challenges
facing the United States in this century. China’s economy could
eclipse that of the United States before the middle of the century,
leading to a reordering of the global trade and investment system and
a redistribution of global power in ways that could severely challenge
U.S. interests. Just as troubling would be a Chinese collapse,
replacing a major strategic challenge with the prospect of significant
geopolitical instability. On the other hand, successful Chinese
transition to a well-functioning, market-based liberal democracy could
provide the United States with a valuable ally in meeting a range of
common threats—from terrorism to global warming.
Despite the im****tance of “getting China right,” American views of
China tend to be en***bered with preexisting biases, ideological
constraints, vague generalizations, inaccurate information, and
misapplied theories. The resulting policy discussions often end in
profound uncertainty and disagreement, torn between extremes of
principled confrontation and sympathetic engagement. Given the high
stakes involved, Americans need a deeper and more accurate
understanding of China’s rise and its policy implications.
To address this foreign policy imperative, the China Program of the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is hosting a series of
debates on the most critical—and controversial—issues involving
China’s economic, political-social, and military evolution and their
policy implications. The main purpose of the debates is to provide
fresh thinking based on systematic, well informed deliberation of the
main issues. The series is primarily for members of Congress and their
staffs but will also reach a wider audience of experts, opinion
leaders, and the general public through limited invitations and broad
internet dissemination.
The debate series is currently planned to address the following debate
questions:
1. Is Communist Party rule sustainable in China? (October 5, 2006)
2. Without significantly accelerated reforms and major new policy
actions, will China's rapid growth unravel before its economy
overtakes the U.S.? (December 1, 2006)
3. Is China’s military modernization program a growing threat to the
United States and Asia? (February 6, 2007)
4. Has U.S. engagement with China produced a significant
improvement in human rights? (March 5, 2007)
5. Does China seek to dominate Asia and drastically reduce (if not
eliminate) U.S. influence as a regional power? (April 20, 2007)
6. Do China's violations of international commercial norms,
including exchange rate manipulation, IPR violations and non-tariff
barriers, require immediate forceful steps by its trading partners to
make it play by the rules? (May 14, 2007)
7. Is China at present (or is it becoming) a responsible
stakeholder in the international community? (June 11, 2007)
8. U.S. policy toward Taiwan: Time for Change? (March 26, 2008)
9. Is China’s reluctance to reduce greenhouse gas emissions the
major stumbling block to effective international action on global
climate change?
10. Is China doing too little to assist the global war on
terrorism, necessitating a concerted U.S. effort to elicit greater
genuine Chinese anti-terrorism collaboration across the board?
11. Should the United States recognize Taiwan as an independent
nation and commit itself to defending the island?
12. Is China laying the groundwork for meeting its enormous future
energy needs through aggressive efforts to corner global energy
supplies requiring a targeted US response?
The debate series will be co-hosted by Minxin Pei, Michael Swaine, and
Albert Keidel, Senior Associates with the Carnegie Endowment's China
Program.
Debate 8. U.S. policy toward Taiwan: Time for Change? (March 26,
2008) is now available on video in
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/events/index.cfm?fa=eventDetail&id=1108&&prog=zch
I tried hard to listen through the whole thing and it was an
impossible task. I fell asleep after 10 minutes at 9 something and
didn't get up again until midnight. God know how many cycles it went
through because I did catch a few segments as I drifted in and out of
sleep on the sofa. There's a good reason. The panel was made upo of
four very distinguished gentlemen with very lofty academics
credentials and professional careers. For all that brain power all
they could do is to reiterate tired old formular how the US will be
obliged to intervene in any China Taiwan issue concerning their
relation****ps. The only difference this time round is the US has lost
all credibility in the international community that it has any moral
leader****p to arbitrate in other countries' business. More than that
the US no longer has the military or economic ability to do so. It is
just as well the State Department had refrained from public statements
on China these days, including commenting on the Olympics. The State
Department has left it to these empty pontificating Think Tanks" to
make the lofy but tired old mantras of American power and prestige to
effect change in the world. Anyway go to the video if you are
interested.
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