The world's long term growth is bright.
The sun's long term growth is bright also.
Many stars' long term growth are also bright.
WTF???
On Apr 21, 12:18 pm, PaPaPeng <PaPaP...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> And the gold medal for growth goes to ... Asia
> Your investments China may not be fully 'decoupled' from the US yet,
> but its long-term stamina is unquestionable
>
> Heather Connon
> The Observer,
> Sunday April 20
2008http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/apr/20/moneyinves=
tments.globalec...
>
> The recent commentary on China, India and other Asian markets has
> focused on whether they will be hit by the credit crunch and the
> slowdown that will inevitably follow. In the short term, there is
> little doubt that the Asian markets will suffer some impact from a US
> recession and slowing growth elsewhere. But the debate about
> 'decoupling' - the word of the moment - risks ignoring the fact that
> Asia is already becoming the powerhouse of economic growth and that
> this trend can only accelerate, regardless of short-term ups and
> downs.
>
> Burkhard Varnholt, chief investment officer of private bank Bank
> Sarasin, points out that the Asia Pacific region already accounts for
> almost 37 per cent of the global economy, measured on the basis of
> purchasing power parity. Its contribution to global growth is even
> greater: China alone supplied 17 per cent, more than the US, and
> emerging Asia as a whole accounted for 40 per cent. 'The world economy
> has now decoupled from its historic US economic leader****p in
> unprecedented ways. The global economic boom is not dead - its engines
> have simply changed,' he says.
>
> The Asian engines are certainly powering up: as any visitor to Beijing
> can see, China has invested 300 billion yuan (=A322bn) in the Olympics
> alone; add in the huge spending on power stations, rail and road
> infrastructure, water projects and the rest, and capital investment in
> the next decade or so will run at hundreds of times that. That will be
> financed by the huge trade and foreign exchange surpluses built up by
> its role as supplier of the world's consumer staples.
>
> These staples are increasingly going to its own population, however,
> and those of neighbouring Asian economies as they start to benefit
> from the growing wealth of their countries, and with 1.3 billion
> people - around four times as many as in the US - that adds up to a
> lot of demand. It also explains the optimism about the sustainability
> of China's growth in the face of a US slowdown, albeit at a rate
> perhaps slightly less rapid than the 11 per cent-plus seen over the
> past few years. Indeed, the World Bank estimates that less than a
> fifth of Chinese ex****ts now go to the US.
>
> Interest in Chinese and Asian funds has grown rapidly in recent years,
> stimulating a wave of new launches, so there is plenty of choice for
> those who want to invest. Marcel ****cheron at BestInvest picks the
> First State Greater China fund, run by Martin Lau, which can also
> invest in Taiwan and Hong Kong, or, for a broader regional exposure,
> Aberdeen Asia Pacific, which is very conservatively run by veteran
> manager Hugh Young.
>
> But investors do not need to invest directly in China to get the
> benefit of the China effect: a growing number of fund managers in
> other regions are also finding ways to cash in on the growth.
>
> China is one of the key themes underlying the strategy of Tom Ewing,
> one of the band of young managers at Fidelity who has just taken over
> its UK Growth fund. Using his powers to hold some foreign shares, he
> has a direct investment in the country via China Mobile - which, he
> points out, is adding 7,000 subscribers every month and, with
> mobile-phone penetration still low, still has plenty of prospects for
> growth. But he is also looking for companies in the UK that should
> cash in on China's growth, ranging from those with strong
> international brand ****tfolios such as Diageo - whose Johnnie Walker
> whisky is popular in China - to the big mining groups such as Rio
> Tinto and Xstrata, which are benefiting from its huge demand for
> commodities.
>
> Ewing's fund has beaten the FT All Share index handsomely over the
> past three and six months, but his track record is too short to judge
> whether his China bet will pay off; poor stock market performance over
> that period means the fund has lost money despite that outperformance.
> BestInvest's ****cheron says a growing number of other UK fund managers
> are also looking for ways to cash in on China's growth - including
> Richard Plackett, manager of the highly rated Blackrock UK Special
> Situations fund. Those whose ****tfolio, or appetite for risk, is not
> large enough to justify investing in a specialist China or Asia fund
> should consider this, or the Fidelity fund, as an alternative.
>
> An unexpected dividend: Eastern yields are rising
>
> Managers investing in Asia have traditionally looked for growth rather
> than income, but that is changing. Ayaz Ebrahim, chief executive of
> Halbis, the active fund management specialist arm of HSBC in the Asia
> Pacific region, points out that yields in the region have been rising
> as Asian companies ditch their historical antipathy towards paying
> dividends. Its research shows that 20 per cent of companies in 2007
> were paying steadily rising dividends, compared with 15 per cent five
> years ago, while a further 33 per cent delivered rising dividends with
> some down years, compared with 23 per cent in 2002.
>
> There are some excellent yields available: Halbis cites examples such
> as Chunghwa Telecom in Taiwan, which yields 6.1 per cent, and
> Singa****e Airlines on 4.1 per cent. If the forecasters are right that
> the global slowdown will not derail Asia's progress, that could make
> their yields even more attractive. Fidelity points out that, while the
> yields on many British companies look attractive - Alliance &
> Leicester, for example, is on 10 per cent - that reflects investors'
> fears that dividends will be cut. A number of companies have already
> cut their payouts and investors are braced for worse, particularly
> from the banks.
>
> Fidelity's research shows that just 11 of the 26 companies in the FTSE
> with yields between 4.5 and 10 per cent have earnings that are more
> than twice their dividend payouts - a key measure of the risk or
> otherwise of a dividend cut.
>
> Buyers of income funds should therefore be aware of what their
> managers are backing - the traditional heavy exposure to the banking
> sector may not be good news. More adventurous income-seekers could
> look overseas: Schroders, Henderson and Aberdeen are among those
> offering attractive Asian income investment or unit trusts.
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