Al-Sadr may restart full-scale fight against US in Iraq
By HAMZA HENDAWI and QASSIM ABDUL-ZAHRA =96 1 hour ago
BAGHDAD (AP) =97 Muqtada al-Sadr is considering setting aside his
political ambitions and restarting a full-scale fight against U.S.-led
forces =97 a worrisome ****ft that may reflect Iranian influence on the
young cleric and could open the way for a shadow state protected by
his powerful Mahdi Army.
A possible breakaway path =97 described to The Associated Press by
****ite lawmakers and politicians =97 would represent the ultimate
backlash to the Iraqi government's pressure on al-Sadr to renounce and
disband his ****ite militia.
By snubbing the give-and-take of politics, al-Sadr would have a freer
hand to carve out a kind of parallel state with its own militia and
social services along the lines of Hezbollah in Lebanon, a ****ite
group founded with Iran's help in the 1980s.
It also would carry potentially disastrous security implications as
the Pentagon trims its troops strength and Prime Minister Nouri al-
Maliki finally shows progress on national reconciliation.
Last week, the main Sunni political bloc announced provisional plans
to rejoin the ****ite-led coalition nine months after quitting the
government. The Sunnis are pleased with the squeeze on al-Sadr's
movement as well as an amnesty law that could free many detainees.
"Muqtada has shown a great deal of patience not calling for an all-out
war yet with so much pressure on him," said Mohan Abedin, director of
research at London's Center for the Study of Terrorism and an expert
on ****ite affairs. "The Mahdi Army is by far the most powerful Iraqi
faction. It can cause damage on a massive scale if it goes to war."
Al-Sadr's next move is still uncertain, but he clearly holds im****tant
cards.
The Mahdi Army is estimated to have about 60,000 fighters =97 with at
least 5,000 thought to be highly trained commandos =97 and is emboldened
by its strong resistance to an Iraqi-led crackdown launched last month
in the southern city of Basra and elsewhere.
Al-Sadr's movement also holds sway over the densely populated ****ite
parts of Baghdad and across the ****ite south by controlling vital
needs such as fuel and running social services such as clinics.
A cease-fire declared last summer by al-Sadr has been credited with
helping bring a steep drop violence.
But al-Sadr =97 who has been in the Iranian seminary city of Qom for the
past year =97 is seriously considering tearing up the truce and
disassociating himself from his political bloc in parliament,
according to loyalists and ****ite politicians interviewed by the AP
over the past two weeks.
Then al-Sadr would be free to unleash Mahdi attacks on U.S. and Iraqi
forces, the political insiders said.
They include members of the 30-seat Sadrist faction in parliament and
members of rival ****ite parties, including two who saw al-Sadr
recently in Iran. All requested anonymity because of the sensitivity
of the subject.
"The emphasis is now on weapons and fighting, not politics," said one
of the lawmakers in the Sadrist bloc. "(Al-Sadr) now only communicates
with the Mahdi Army commanders."
Any Mahdi Army offensive could have serious repercussions. Mahdi
fighters engaged in fierce battles with U.S. forces in 2004 and then
were blamed for waves of roadside bombings that were once the chief
killer of American troops.
Mahdi militiamen also fought Iraqi security forces to a virtual
standstill last month in Basra before an Iranian-supervised truce.
It's unknown how much al-Sadr's Iranian hosts are shaping his views.
Al-Sadr, who is in his mid-30s, is studying in Qom under the
supervision of Ayatollah Kazim al-Haeri, a reclusive Iraqi cleric
close to Iranian hard-liners.
Wa****ngton accuses Iran of aiding ****ite militias in Iraq, including
so-called "special groups" with murky ties to the Mahdi mainstream.
Iran denies the allegations.
But Iran has obvious and well known connections to the main ****ite
political groups in al-Maliki's government. During the recent battles
in Basra, Iran sup****ted al-Maliki's crackdown on so-called
"criminals" but did not make a clear statement on the spillover
confrontation with the Mahdi Army.
Backing a Mahdi Army uprising would allow Tehran to effectively play
both sides in a ****ite showdown.
A flurry of recent statements by al-Sadr has emphasized his first
public role: as a firebrand militia leader after the U.S.-led invasion
in 2003.
In a statement posted Saturday on his Web site, al-Sadr gave a "final
warning" to the government to halt its crackdown or face an "open war
until liberation."
Senior Mahdi Army commanders, speaking on condition of anonymity
because they are not authorized to discuss strategy with media, said
they have taken delivery of new Iranian weapons, including
sophisticated roadside bombs, Grad rockets and shoulder-fired anti-
aircraft missiles.
The militia's top field commanders, they said, were senior members of
the special groups.
One commander, who identified himself by his nickname Abu Dhara al-
Sadri, said scores of militia fighters were prepared to carry out
suicide bombings against U.S. forces. Suicide bombings are the
signature attacks of Sunni militants in Iraq's conflict, but the
tactic was introduced against Americans in Lebanon by ****ite militants
in the 1980s.
Sadrist lawmakers and aides have sent compromise-seeking proposals to
al-Sadr in Qom. The ideas seek to appease al-Maliki enough to
forestall his threat: barring al-Sadr's followers from running in this
fall's key provincial elections unless al-Sadr disbands the Mahdi
Army.
But the proposals have gone unanswered, said al-Sadr's aides.
One offer, they said, would allow for creation of a new political
party with no formal links to the Mahdi Army. Another would permit
candidates sympathetic to the Sadrists =97 but with no direct links =97 to
run as independents in the fall election.
One of the authors of the proposals, moderate cleric Riyadh al-Nouri,
was gunned down April 11 in Najaf, the spiritual center for ****ites in
Iraq. The reason for the slaying was not clear.
Lawmakers and politicians told the AP that al-Sadr's more belligerent
tone is motivated, in part, by his wish to secure a place for himself
in history as a nationalist leader and anger over the recent arrests
of hundreds of sup****ters despite his unilateral cease-fire.
At talks this month in Qom between al-Sadr and former Prime Minister
Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the young cleric vowed never to disband the Mahdi
Army while U.S. and other foreign forces remain in Iraq, according to
****ite political figures familiar with the meetings.
Al-Jaafari has said he was mediating an accommodation between al-Sadr
and al-Maliki's government.
Salah al-Obeidi, al-Sadr's chief spokesman in Iraq, acknowledged that
al-Sadr and the Iranians were at present bound by close ties and
common goals.
However, he was quick to add that while al-Sadr and the Iranians
shared common interests =97 namely fighting the Americans in Iraq =97 the
cleric was nobody's puppet.
Vali Nasr, an expert on ****ite politics at the Fletcher School of Law
and Diplomacy at Tufts University, said the Iranians may want al-Sadr
to stay in Qom to keep him in check for the moment.
"Muqtada is forcing everyone's hand right now when they (the Iranians)
may not be wanting their hand forced," said Nasr.
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