"To see what's in front of your noses requires a constant struggle" -
George Orwell
Utopianism or rather universalism remains a pipedream, and demography
is still destiny.
* * *
http://www.wa****ngtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/30/AR2008043003258.html?nav=hcmodule
CIA Chief Sees Unrest Rising With Population
By Joby Warrick
Wa****ngton Post Staff Writer
Thursday, May 1, 2008; A15
Swelling populations and a global tide of immigration will present new
security challenges for the United States by straining resources and
stoking extremism and civil unrest in distant corners of the globe,
CIA Director Michael V. Hayden said in a speech yesterday.
The population surge could undermine the stability of some of the
world's most fragile states, especially in Africa, while in the West,
governments will be forced to grapple with ever larger immigrant
communities and deepening divisions over ethnicity and race, Hayden
said.
Hayden, speaking at Kansas State University, described the projected
33 percent growth in global population over the next 40 years as one
of three significant trends that will alter the security landscape in
the current century. By 2050, the number of humans on Earth is
expected to rise from 6.7 billion to more than 9 billion, he said.
"Most of that growth will occur in countries least able to sustain it,
a situation that will likely fuel instability and extremism, both in
those countries and beyond," Hayden said.
With the population of countries such as Niger and Liberia projected
to triple in size in 40 years, regional governments will be forced to
rapidly find food, shelter and jobs for millions, or deal with restive
populations that "could be easily attracted to violence, civil unrest,
or extremism," he said.
European countries, many of which already have large immigrant
communities, will see particular growth in their Muslim populations
while the number of non-Muslims will shrink as birthrates fall.
"Social integration of immigrants will pose a significant challenge to
many host nations -- again boosting the potential for unrest and
extremism," Hayden said.
The CIA director also predicted a widening gulf between Europe and
North America on how to deal with security threats, including
terrorism. While U.S. and European officials agree on the urgency of
the terrorism threat, there is a fundamental difference -- a
"transatlantic divide" -- over the solution, he said.
While the United States sees the fight against terrorism as a global
war, European nations perceive the terrorist threat as a law
enforcement problem, he said.
"They tend not to view terrorism as we do, as an overwhelming
international challenge. Or if they do, we often differ on what would
be effective and appropriate to counter it," Hayden said. He added
that he could not predict "when or if" the two sides could forge a
common approach to security.
A third security trend highlighted by Hayden was the emergence of
China as a global economic and military powerhouse, pursuing its
narrow strategic and political interests. But Hayden said China's
increasing prominence need not be perceived as a direct challenge to
the United States.
"If Beijing begins to accept greater responsibility for the health of
the international system, as all global powers should, we will remain
on a constructive, even if competitive, path," he said. "If not, the
rise of China begins to look more adversarial."
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