This is the Asia model. Still, the signals he has sent are so faint
and so tentative that it's not at all clear where he wants to take
Cuba or where Cuba will go."
Robert Pastor, a professor of international relations at American
University, speaking of Raúl Castro's
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/02/america/02cuba.php
(snip)
Since finally succeeding his ailing 81-year-old brother, Fidel, in
February, Castro, 76, who appeared before hundreds of thousands of
Cubans at a May Day rally on Thursday here in the capital, has been
busy with a flurry of changes. In the last eight weeks he has also
opened access to cellphones, lifted the ban on Cubans using tourist
hotels, and granted farmers the right to mange unused land for profit.
More is on the horizon, government officials say, like easing
restrictions to go abroad and the possibility of allowing Cubans to
buy and sell their own cars, and perhaps even their homes. Each of
these changes may be microscopic in contrast to the outsize problems
facing Cuba. But taken together, they are shaking up this stoic,
time-warped place.
Just how far Castro will be willing to tinker with the country his
brother left him and what, if anything, he is using as his playbook
nobody knows for sure. Mikhail Gorbachev's attempts to reinvigorate
the ailing Soviet system led to its collapse and its abandonment of
Cuba. More inspiring is the mix of consumerism and pragmatic
authoritarian politics that sparked growth and reinforced Communist
Party rule in China and Vietnam.
China is now Cuba's second largest trading partner, and Vietnam is one
of the first countries that Castro has said he will visit. Leaders
from both countries visited over the last year and had sessions with
both Castro brothers. Cuba analysts say that Raúl Castro, as the
longtime defense minister, has maintained close ties to both
countries' militaries and has close aides who know the countries well.
"This is the Asia model," asserted Robert Pastor, a professor of
international relations at American University. "Still, the signals he
has sent are so faint and so tentative that it's not at all clear
where he wants to take Cuba or where Cuba will go."
Marifeli Pérez-Stable, vice president for democratic governance at the
Inter-American Dialogue, said: "He's never going to say. I'm not sure
he even knows it. But he is following China, and even more so
Vietnam," meaning that Castro was hewing to a more go-slow approach.
As in those countries, economic freedom is one thing, and political
liberty something else. On the latter, Cuba's government has given
every sign that it is intent on holding the line.
(snip)
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