China 'to top Games medal table'
By Gordon Farquhar
BBC Radio 5 Live Olympics correspondent
May 8, 2008
http://news.bbc.co.uk/s****t2/hi/olympics/7387807.stm
Liu Xiang won the men's 110m hurdles at the Athens Olympics
China is being tipped to end the reign of the United States as the
leading Olympic nation at the Beijing Games.
Research undertaken by Sheffield Hallam University predicts the hosts
will win 46 gold medals in the Chinese capital.
"China has set its stall out to become the number one nation in s****t
and to top the table in its host event," Professor Simon ****bli told
BBC S****t.
"We are forecasting China will win 46 gold medals, which probably
exceeds most other people's forecasts."
China is the most populous country in the world, with approximately
1.33 billion people, compared with the 305.8 million of the US.
OLYMPICS BLOG
The implication is that team strategies are likely to come into play
in any event in which China has two or more finalists contesting
medals
BBC correspondent Gordon Farquhar
Professor ****bli analysed past Olympic performances, China's record in
turning bronze and silver medals into gold ones, and recent success on
the international stage to reach his conclusions.
He also plotted the likely effect, the considerable sums of money and
resources being pumped into its s****ting development programme by the
Chinese government would have on the country's medal haul in Beijing.
Professor ****bli said conservative estimates indicated the Chinese
government had spent billions of pounds ensuring its Olympians were in
the best possible shape when the Games start.
"Value for money and costs per medal become of secondary im****tance to
actually winning," he said.
China first entered the Summer Olympic arena in 1984, winning 15 gold
medals in the heavily boycotted Games in Los Angeles.
For a nation to be continually improving, in the case of China to
double its gold medals from 16 in Barcelona to 32 in Athens, is really
quite unprecedented
Professor Simon ****bli
At the 1988 Games in Seoul, China won just five golds - the same
number as Great Britain - but since then its performances have
improved dramatically.
China won 16 golds in both Barcelona (1992) and Atlanta (1996) to
finish fourth overall, before moving up to third in Sydney with 28 and
second in Athens with 32.
"Its improvement from the Seoul Olympics in 1988 to second place and
32 gold medals in Athens is unprecedented," said Professor ****bli.
"For most nations, it is a great achievement to hang on to what you
already have.
"So for a nation to be continually improving - in the case of China to
double its gold medals from 16 in Barcelona to 32 in Athens - is
really quite unprecedented."
Professor ****bli's research actually indicated China would win 39 gold
medals in Beijing, but his team felt home sup****t would secure the
host nation a further seven.
Guo Jingjing and Wu Minxia took gold in the 3m synchronised final
"It is a top-end estimate, but that is what the data is telling us,"
he added.
"If China were to achieve 46 gold medals, then, in the current
climate, that would be more than enough to top the table."
But not everyone agrees with the results of the research.
The highly respected Luciano Barra, the former head of the Italian
Olympic Committee, has predicted the US will win 45 gold medals in
Beijing to top the table ahead of China, who would get 40.
As for the United States Olympic Committee (USOC), it said it had not
made any predictions for Beijing but admitted the host nation was
favourite to top the medals table.
"The USOC has not made medal projections or set medal goals for this
Olympic Games," a spokesman told BBC S****t.
"That said, America's athletes recognise just how challenging the
competitive environment will be, and they are preparing with this in
mind.
"While China is clearly the favourite, the USOC is confident Team USA
will rise to meet the competitive challenges in Beijing."
The US has finished top of the medals table at the last three
Olympics, thanks chiefly to the dominance of its athletes and
swimmers.
What China is trying to do is broaden the base of s****ts in which it
wins medals
Professor Simon ****bli
"China and the USA achieve their success in radically different
s****ts," explained Professor ****bli.
"The USA typically does very well on the track and very well in the
pool - and these are two areas in which China, traditionally, has not
done very well.
"What China is trying to do is broaden the base of s****ts in which it
wins medals. Quite often these are s****ts which are not particularly
high profile."
China has been investing heavily in most of the Olympic disciplines
ahead of Beijing and already boasts a strong record in diving, having
won six golds in Athens.
It also picked up five in weightlifting, four in shooting and three in
both badminton and table tennis.
Kelly Holmes won two of GB's nine gold medals at the Athens Games
In contrast, the US claimed 12 golds in the pool alone, with another
eight coming from its athletes.
The Americans finished up winning 36 golds in Athens, just four ahead
of China, with Russia third on 27.
As for Great Britain, they were 10th with nine, two less than they won
in Sydney.
However, Professor ****bli thinks Team GB could reach double figures
again in Beijing thanks to National Lottery funding and the London
2012 factor.
"All of the evidence suggests we have reasons to be positive," he
said.
"We've been investing since the changes in National Lottery funding
regulations to sup****t athletes and national governing bodies.
"The evidence we have indicates that in the run-up to being the host
nation, the would-be host tends to do better than it has in previous
editions
"Given that we won nine gold medals in Athens it wouldn't be
unreasonable to assume we'd do something like 10 to 12 and easily get
a place in the top 10."
===========
China team orders threaten Radcliffe bid
" Gordon Farquhar
" 8 May 08, 07:48 AM
"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/olympics/2008/05/team_orders_threaten_radcliffe.html
In my discussions with leading academic Simon ****bli, who has
predicted China will top the Olympic medals table for the first time
this summer, one thing really stood out.
And it was this: China's decision to adopt a central government policy
of "whole country sup****t for the elite s****t system".
How might that manifest itself in competition, I wondered? "Team
orders", he replied.
His implication was that team strategies were likely to come into play
in any event in which China had two or more finalists contesting
medals.
We've seen it often enough in athletics, especially from the
Ethiopians and Kenyans in the distance events.
But will we possibly have seen it on such a scale as in Beijing, where
the host nation's Olympians will be going all out for success?
World marathon record-holder Paula Radcliffe, Britain's best hope of a
track gold, will have to contend not only with the prospect of
stifling heat, sour air and the spectre of her demise in Athens but
also China doing a double-team job on her around the capital's
streets.
China's success story at the Olympics speaks loudly in favour of the
policies adopted by UK S****t as it aims for a higher medal return at
the London Games in 2012.
Now there is a centralised strategic approach to performance, based on
analysis, targeting, prioritisation and diversification.
That might look like a lot of management speak, so in more tangible
terms it is how you go, as China has, from winning five gold medals in
Seoul in 1988 to potentially 46 in Beijing in just 20 years.
There is one crucial difference, however.
UK S****t is obliged to deliver value for money and is held to account
by the Government.
In 2004, the Association for Asian Research estimated that in the four
years leading up to the Athens Games, China invested £1.2bn in
top-level s****t. The UK spent £98.6m.
You get what you pay for, it seems.
But there is also comfort to be drawn from Professor ****bli's work as
Team GB works towards the "aspirational" goal of a fourth-placed
finish in 2012.
Analysis of the "home-nation" effect shows that, on average, the hosts
rake in an extra seven gold medals.
Based on a projection of 11 golds for Team GB in Beijing, that would
almost certainly result in the fourth-placed finish they crave - and
at Australia's expense to boot.
If only it were as easy to achieve as it is to write...
Gordon Farquhar is BBC 5 Live's s****ts news and Olympics
correspondent. Our FAQs should answer any questions you have. If they
don't, you can contact us.
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