Planned U.S. Israeli Attack On Iran: Will There Be A War Against Iran?
by Michel Chossudovsky,
Global Research,
May 14, 2008.
The media has failed to cover the history of US war preparations
directed against Iran. News coverage of US sponsored war preparations
in relation to Iran started to surface in early 2007 in scanty press
re****ts.
Although confirmed by official military do***ents and re****ts, public
opinion has largely been kept in the dark and misinformed on these war
preparations.
A war on Iran has been envisaged since the mid-1990s as part of a
strategic "sequencing" of theater operations. During the Clinton
administration, US Central Command (USCENTCOM) had formulated "in war
theater plans" to invade first Iraq and then Iran:
"The broad national security interests and objectives expressed in the
President's National Security Strategy (NSS) and the Chairman's
National Military Strategy (NMS) form the foundation of the United
States Central Command's theater strategy. The NSS directs
implementation of a strategy of dual containment of the rogue states
of Iraq and Iran as long as those states pose a threat to U.S.
interests, to other states in the region, and to their own citizens.
Dual containment is designed to maintain the balance of power in the
region without depending on either Iraq or Iran. USCENTCOM's theater
strategy is interest-based and threat-focused. The purpose of U.S.
engagement, as espoused in the NSS, is to protect the United States'
vital interest in the region - uninterrupted, secure U.S./Allied
access to Gulf oil."
(USCENTCOM,
http://www.milnet.com/milnet/pentagon/centcom/chap1/stratgic.htm=
#USPolicy
, emphasis added)
Consistent with CENTCOM's 1995 "sequencing", the plans to target Iran
were activated under TIRANNT (Theater Iran Near Term) in the immediate
wake of the 2003 invasion of Iraq. TIRANNT consisted in a model
scenario type analysis of a theater war directed against Iran. The
analysis, which involved senior military and intelligence experts,
consisted in examining different theater scenarios.
"The US army, navy, air force and marines have all prepared battle
plans and spent four years building bases and training for "Operation
Iranian Freedom". Admiral Fallon, the new head of US Central Command
[resigned in March 2008], has inherited computerized plans under the
name TIRANNT (Theatre Iran Near Term)." (New Statesman, 19 Feb 2007)
The following text (in annex) entitled Planned US Israeli Attack on
Iran was published three years ago by Global Research in May 2005. It
outlines the earlier phase of US-Israel war preparations in relation
to Iran.
(See http://www.globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO505A.html)
While much of this analysis remains valid, military planning in
relation to Iran is now in a much more advanced stage. Moreover, the
structure of military alliances underlying the Pentagon's war plans
has also evolved. NATO is now part of the military alliance.
Under NATO auspices, in liaison with the Pentagon, British, German,
Turkish and French forces are slated to play a significant role in the
case of an attack on Iran and Syria.
In this regard, it is worth noting that already in 2005, NATO and
Israel had established the basis of a far-reaching military
cooperation agreement. In turn, Turkey, which from a military
standpoint constitutes a significant force within NATO, has a
comprehensive bilateral military cooperation agreement with Israel.
According to military do***ents and statements, US, Israeli and allied
forces are "in an advanced state of readiness". In fact much of the
war planning had already reached that "advanced stage" in 2005.
Several im****tant variables come into play in *****sing the
possibility of an all out war on Iran.
"An advanced stage of readiness" to attack Iran does not signify that
a war will actually occur. A number of im****tant countervailing
factors must be addressed.
Saber Rattling
Apart from outright war, the US sponsored war preparations serve
several other foreign policy objectives.
The threat of war coupled by advanced military preparedness are often
used to bully countries into compliance, to oblige them to give up
their sovereignty, to open up their economy to Western investors, to
privatize and sell off their assets to American companies, etc. These
threats will only be effective if the country does not have the
ability to defend itself militarily. The strength of its national
economy is also a major consideration.
The Sabre rattling is ongoing in relation to Iran. The objective is
ultimately to subdue Iran as a regional power and take possession of
its oil wealth, which constitutes approximately ten percent of total
world reserves.
What are Iran's military capabilities, namely its ability to defend
itself and inflict damage on US and allied forces?
The answer to this question involves essentially two aspects.
First, Iran has an advanced air defense system, using both Iranian and
Russian technology. Moreover, it has, according to Western military
experts, perfected its ballistic missile capabilities to the extent
that it is capable of inflicting significant damage on US and allied
military installations in Iraq, the Persian Gulf and Israel.
Over the last few years, Iran has been actively preparing for a US
sponsored attack. Moreover, resulting from the surge in oil revenues,
the Tehran government has enhanced capabilities to finance its
military preparedness. In this regard, Iran is in a very different
situation to that of Iraq prior to the 2003 invasion, targeted by
Anglo-American air attacks under the "No Fly Zone" coupled with more
than ten years of deadly economic sanctions.
US military planners are fully aware of the possibility of escalation.
If extensive air attacks were to be launched, Iranian conventional
forces would immediately cross the border into Iraq and attack US
military installations. This is a factor which has contributed to
"putting the war on hold".
Instead of extensive bombings which would result in retaliation.
Wa****ngton may decide as a first step in a broader military campaign
to launch limited air attacks, on the presumption that Iran would not
retaliate. According to Philip Giraldi, the attack would "be as
'pinpoint' and limited as possible, intended to target only al-Qods
and avoid civilian casualties." Before launching a "limited attack",
the US would attempt to ensure, through threat and secret
negotiations, that retaliation would not occur.
The US Military's "Ability to Fight Wars"
Adm. William Fallon, who was recently fired as Commander of US Central
Command (USCENTCOM) was acutely aware of Iran's ability to retaliate
militarily and inflict significant losses to US and coalition forces.
This understanding was in fact conveyed at the outset of the 2003 war
scenarios under TIRANNT.
Prior to his dimissal, Admiral Fallon played down the possibility of a
war with Iran: =93We are not going to do Iran on my watch.=94.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Michael Mullen,
while broadly sup****tive of the Bush-Cheney White House, has
officially acknowledged US military weaknesses. The wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan "may have undermined the military's ability to fight wars
against major adversaries - including Iran." ( quoted in Haaretz,
October 22, 2007).
In an interview with the New York Times, Mullen stated:
"...the risks could be very, very high.... We're in a conflict in two
countries out there right now... We have to be incredibly thoughtful
about the potential of in fact getting into a conflict with a third
country in that part of the world."
These statements were made at the very outset of his mandate as
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in October 2007.
Mullen's hesitations to wage war on Iran are not based on a divergent
political stance but on a realistic *****sment of US military
capabilities. Admiral Mullen recognizes that the US military is
overstretched and that in relation to Iraq, the US military is facing
serious problems in military recruitment.
Moreover, tacitly acknowledged by the Pentagon, US and coalition
forces are facing fierce resistance in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
The Appointment of General David Petraeus as Head of USCENTCOM
The appointment of General David Petraeus to the Head of U.S. Central
Command (USCENTCOM) has served to neutralize potential opposition
within the US Armed Forces. It reinforces Vice President Cheney's
ability to order an attack and ensure that the Military will fully
sup****t the Bush administration.
The objective is to "set up Iran for attack" using Iran's alleged
intervention in Iraq as a pretext and justification, "on [the] grounds
that Iran ... is responsible for the mounting death toll among
American troops in Iraq." (See Iran should be "Set Up for an Attack"
by Muriel Mirak-Weissbach, Global Research, May 2008). Iran is also
accused of intervening in Afghanstan and Lebanon. In this regard, the
2006 Israeli attacks on Lebanon are part of the roadmap of a broader
war directed against Iran and Syria. (See Mahdi D. Nazemroaya, Global
Research, May 2007)
Armed Clashes in Lebanon
The recent armed clashes in Lebanon opposing Hizbollah to the US-
Israeli sup****ted May 14th Movement, have precipitated the country
into chaos. Fighting erupted after the pro-US Siniora government
announced a crackdown on Hizbollah.
Hizbollah has taken control of parts of West Beirut setting the stage
for a NATO "peacekeeping" intervention inside Lebanon. A greater
involvement of NATO coupled with the militarization of the entire
Eastern Mediterranean coastline is an integral part of the Iran-Syria
war scenario: "a peacekeeping" role by NATO forces, on behalf of
Israel, targetting Syria as well as Hizbollah and Hamas.
These recent events in Lebanon have been triggered quite deliberately
with a view to destabilzing the country. They are part of the US
sponsored military roadmap; they are intended to set the stage for a
confrontation with Syria.
The Structure of Military Alliances
The structure of military alliances is crucial. America's allies are
Israel and NATO.
Iran's allies are China and Russia and the member States of the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
Both China and Russia have far-reaching bilateral military cooperation
agreements with Iran. Since 2005, Iran has an observer member status
in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In turn, the SCO has
ties to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an
overlapping military cooperation agreement between Russia, Armenia,
Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan.
In October 2007, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)
and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signed a Memorandum of
Understanding, laying the foundations for military cooperation between
the two organizations. This SCO-CSTO agreement, barely mentioned by
the Western media, involves the creation of a full-fledged military
alliance between China, Russia and the member states of SCO/CSTO. It
is worth noting that the SCTO and the SCO held joint military
exercises in 2006, which coincided with those conducted by Iran. (For
further details see Michel Chossudovsky, Russia and Central Asian
Allies Conduct War Games in Response to US Threats, Global Research,
August 2006)
In the context of US war plans directed against Iran, the US is also
intent upon weakening Iran's allies, namely Russia and China. In the
case of China, Wa****ngton is seaking to disrupt Beijing's bilateral
ties with Tehran as well as Iran's rapprochement with the SCO, which
has its headquarters in Beijing.
In this regard, a military operation directed against Iran can only
succeed if the structure of military alliances which link Iran to
China and Russia is significantly weakened.
There are indicaitons that this Eurasian military alliance underlying
the SCO has in fact been strengthened. While currently Iran has
observer status, the Tehran government has indicated its desire to
become a full member of the SCO. Moreover, in the course of the last
year, Iran has strengthened its bilateral ties in the field of energy
and oil and gas pipelines with India as well as Pakistan. The
positioning of India on the side of Iran in the oil and energy field
is another factor which weakens Wa****ngton's influence in the
region.
"What Tehran is seaking is "nothing less than a blueprint for a new
correlation of nations in Eurasia, whose collaboration in developing
continental infrastucture--nuclear energy, gas and oil pipelines, and
trans****tation--should establish the economic, and therefore
political, basis for true independence" (see Muriel Mirak Weissbach,
May 2008)
History points to the im****tance of competing military alliances. In
the present context, the US and its NATO partners are seaking to
undermine the formation of a cohesive Eurasian SCO-CSTO military
alliance, which could effectively challenge and contain US-NATO
military expansionism in Eurasia, combining the military capabilities
not only of Russia and China, but also those of several former Soviet
republics including Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan
Uzbekistan and the Kyrgyz Republic.
The Decision to go to War: Not a Rational Choice
The decision to go to war is not made by the Military high command.
The decision to go to war is taken by civilians.
The US Military is characterised by a hierarchy and command structure.
Orders come from above, emanating from the "civilian government",
namely the Bush administration. They are transmitted downwards
through the military command structure. Once the order to go to war is
taken, it is not discussed or debated, it is carried out by the
military. Moreover, in all likelihood, in implementing a "preemptive
attack" on Iran, the Bush administration would bypass the US Congress,
in blatant violation of Article I, Section 8 of the U.S.
Constitution.
In practice, the President and Commander in Chief, namely George W.
Bush, does not decide. He also obeys orders from above. He follows the
diktats of powerful financial and cor****ate interests.
This war is profit-driven. "War is good for business". It is a money
making operation. It results in billions of dollar of profits for Wall
Street, the oil giants and the military industrial complex, not to
mention the institutional speculators in the oil, currency and
commodity markets.
The objective of the proposed war is to extend the frontiers of the
global capitalist economy, eventually taking control of Iran's oil
wealth. The broader implications of a war using tactical nuclear
weapons in the conventional war theater are of no concern to those who
decide to go to war.
The Central Role of Vice President Dick Cheney
In contrast to previous adminstrations, the Vice President has played
a central role in the Bush adminstration, overshadowing the office of
the President. In practice, Vice President Cheney, sup****ted by an
army of senior officials and loyal advisers, controls the White House.
At the same time, Cheney is part of a powerful cor****ate apparatus,
through his links to Halliburton and the role Halliburton has played
in defining a profit-driven military agenda.
Cheney has personally played a key roie in activating war plans
directed against Iran.
"At the outset of Bush's second term, Vice President Dick Cheney
dropped a bombshell. He hinted, in no uncertain terms, that Iran was
"right at the top of the list" of the rogue enemies of America, and
that Israel would, so to speak, "be doing the bombing for us", without
US military involvement and without us putting pressure on them "to do
it"." (Michel Chossudovsky, May 2005)
Cheney is the de facto Head of State, he overshadows George W. Bush,
who is mere figurehead. More recently, he has played a key role in
pressuring the frontline Arab states into sup****ting a preemptive
attack on Iran.
Vice President Cheney has little concern for the likely consequences
and the resulting loss of life which would result from the use of both
conventional and nuclear weapons. He is fully aware that even a
limited air attack on Iran could contribute to unlea****ng a broader
Middle East-Central Asian war, extending from the Eastern
Mediterranean to China's Western frontier. The various scenarios of
this broader war have already been envisaged.
Most serious Crisis in Modern History
We are at the crossroads of the most serious crisis in modern history.
These war plans coincide with a parallel process of economic
restructuring and a deepseated Worldwide economic depression. War and
globalization are intimately related processes. The militarisation of
the Middle East and Central Asia sup****ts the extension of the global
"free market" system into new frontiers.
In turn, the war has heightened the economic crisis. The civilian
economy is collapsing, overshadowed and undermined by the dynamic
growth of the military industrial complex, which in a very real sense
produces "weapons of mass destruction. In turn, the concurrent hikes
in the price of crude oil, in the price of basic food staples, through
speculative activities on major commodity exchanges have contributed
to impoveri****ng millions of people.
"The antiwar movement must act, consistently, to prevent the next
phase of this war from happening.
This is no easy matter. The holding of large antiwar rallies will not
in itself reverse the tide of war.
High ranking officials of the Bush administration, members of the
military and the US Congress have been granted the authority to uphold
an illegal war agenda.
What is required is a grass roots network, a mass movement at national
and international levels, which challenges the legitimacy of the
military and political actors, and which is ultimately instrumental in
unseating those who rule in our name.
War criminals occupy positions of authority. The citizenry is
galvanized into sup****ting the rulers, who are "committed to their
safety and well-being". Through media disinformation, war is given a
humanitarian mandate.
To reverse the tide of war, military bases must be closed down, the
war machine (namely the production of advanced weapons systems) must
be stopped and the burgeoning police state must be dismantled.
The cor****ate backers and sponsors of war and war crimes must also be
targeted including the oil companies, the defense contractors, the
financial institutions and the cor****ate media, which has become an
integral part of the war propaganda machine.
Antiwar sentiment does not dismantle a war agenda. The war criminals
in the US, Israel and Britain must be removed from high office.
What is needed is to reveal the true face of the American Empire and
the underlying criminalization of US foreign policy, which uses the
"war on terrorism" and the threat of Al Qaeda to galvanize public
opinion in sup****t of a global war agenda." (Michel Chossudovsky, May
1st 2005)
SOURCE: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=3Dva&aid=3D8861
See Also:
'Was April 20th The Original Date Of The Planned U.S. 'Air Strike' On
Iran?' http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/IRANPLAN.HTM
'Is A U.S./Israeli Air Strike On Iran Drawing Steadily Closer?' (News
Updates) http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/IRANWAR.HTM
- o O o =96
'Bush Was Prepared To Go Nuclear: Afghanistan Was To Have Been A NWO
Object Lesson!=92 http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/NUCLEAR.HTM.
=91The Plan For Three World Wars=92
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/3WARS.HTM
Elitist Blueprint For World Government Revealed
http://www.prisonplanet.com/articles/may2008/050108_elitist_blueprint...
'Astounding Quotes From The Political And Financial Elite On The
Planned New World Order' http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/TRAGEDY.HTM
Archived =91New World Order Intelligence Update=92 Articles on the =91New
World Order=92
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/sect22.htm
The Elite=92s Secretive Plan For A =91North American Union=92
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/NAU1.HTM
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/NAU2.HTM
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/NAU3.HTM
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The Elite=92s =93Newstates=92 Constitution For The Coming =91United States
O=
f
North America=92
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/NEWSTATE.HTM
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=85And the likely response to an economic or financial crisis by =91El
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George W. Bush: Constitution of the United States is just a "goddamned
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http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/article_8534.shtml
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http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/CONCAMP2.HTM
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http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/CONCAMP3.HTM
'More Preparations For U.S. Martial Law'
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/MOREMART.HTM
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- o O o -
Visit our invaluable archive of Articles on the New World Order
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/sect22.htm
You'll find a wide range of free online Classic History books (on
English history, American History, Canadian History, European History,
Napoleonic History, Russian History, German History, Greek and Roman
History), plus the books of Jane Austen, at
http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.co=
m/freehist.htm
For free online Classic Travel Books,
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For free online Classic Christian Books,
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- o O o -
NUCLEAR TREASON AT THE TOP OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT?
These serious allegations, involving the alleged =91sale=92 of nuclear
secrets, reach right to the top of the U.S. government. The
prestigious London =91Sunday Times=92 first broke this blockbuster story
on 6th January, 2008 =96 it has been completely =91blacked out=92 by the
U.S. media and wire services!
For news headline and blogger article links on the recent sensational
=91U.S. Nuclear Treason And Betrayal=92 revelations of Sibel Edmonds, the
ex-FBI whistleblower who has been called =91The most-gagged woman in
America=92, go to http://www.mimico-by-the-lake.com/EDMONDS.HTM
=93If you made public all the information that the FBI have on this
case, you will see very high-level people going through criminal
trials=94 =96 Sibel Edmonds
|
