On Wed, 21 May 2008 08:22:03 -0700 (PDT), demorising@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>Taiwan leader: China unification unlikely 'in our lifetimes'
Quite a different picgture is presengted by Asia Times Online.
There is only one issue of im****tance for any leader of Taiwan. That
will be reunification with China. Everything else is small stuff.
How this leader will manage the reunification will make his place in
history. Lose that chance and he becomes a footnote. Already who
remembers CSB now. He achieved nothing.
One hand across the strait
By Ralph A Cossa
March 23, 2008
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JE23Ad01.html
TAIPEI - "Be careful what you wish for." This Chinese proverb came
repeatedly to mind when listening this week to incoming Taiwan
President Ma Ying-jeou's forward-leaning inauguration address that
sent so many olive branches toward Beijing that even some of his
ardent sup****ters feared he had "gone too far" and protesters almost
immediately took to the street in Taipei warning against "selling out"
to China.
The big question now is can Beijing, after hearing "no" for the past
eight years, now take "yes" for an answer. Ma called on Beijing to
join him to "launch a new era of cross-strait relations", based on his
previously articulated "three no's" policy: no unification, no
independence and no use of force. He talked about "one China,
respective interpretations" and the "1992 consensus" (under which both
sides agreed to disagree over how to define "one China") and made
several references to "our mutual Chinese heritage".
He also committed to maintaining the status quo across the strait,
noting at one point that "in a young democracy, respecting the
constitution is more im****tant than amending it" - his predecessor's
attempts to amend the constitution was a main source of tension
between Taipei and Beijing.
In a truly unprecedented gesture, Ma also made specific positive
reference to Chinese President Hu Jintao's remarks on cross-strait
relations - "building mutual trust, shelving controversies, finding
commonalities despite differences and creating together a win-win
solution" - stating that "his views are very much in line with our
own".
Ma laid out the normalization of economic and cultural relations with
the mainland as immediate goals, but warned that "Taiwan doesn't just
want security and prosperity; it wants dignity". Herein lies the rub!
It should be relatively easy for Beijing to respond positively to Ma's
calls for direct weekend charter flights and visits to Taiwan by
mainland tourists and other economic and cultural exchanges. Some
security gestures, such as a visible drawback of missiles opposite
Taiwan, is also doable without dramatically changing the security
calculus. But, is Beijing prepared to make significant gestures aimed
at truly improving Taiwan's sense of security and relieving its
international isolation?
A failure by Beijing to respond positively to Ma's olive branches will
seriously undercut the new Taiwanese leader as he tries to build
consensus at home in sup****t of his forward-leaning cross-strait
policies. His address is already being labeled by the opposition as
"naive" and "wishful thinking". Will Beijing prove this to be the
case?
For its part, the Chinese leader****p is preoccupied with other things
right now - earthquake relief, Summer Olympic Games preparations,
unrest in Tibet and elsewhere - even while breathing a sigh of relief
that its main nemesis, now-departed president Chen Shui-bian, is
finally gone. Beijing appeared almost paranoid about Chen springing an
11th-hour surprise; a fear exacerbated by its lack of understanding
about how democratic transitions work. This one worked flawlessly, as
Chen himself had promised.
Beijing immediately opted to pass on its first chance to make a
positive political gesture by once again blocking Taiwan's bid for
observer status in the World Health Organization (WHO). Chen's
decision to apply as "Taiwan" rather than "Chinese Taipei" regrettably
made it easier for Beijing to once again block this request, but it
could have asked the WHO to postpone consideration of Taiwan's bid for
a few days to allow for a reformulation of the application, rather
than quickly excluding it from the agenda. As a result, Beijing needs
to quickly find some other venues to provide the dignity that Ma seeks
and Taiwan richly deserves.
It appears that Beijing is still struggling to figure out how to deal
with a potentially friendly government in Taipei after years of just
saying no to everything and branding every positive gesture by the
Chen administration a "splittist trick".
The real concern, as some Chinese candidly expressed to me during a
recent visit to Beijing, is finding ways to improve Taiwan's
"international breathing space" without further enhancing its status
as a sovereign independent entity (or dare we say "country"). Fear
that gestures once made would be exploited were Chen's Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) to return to power were also cited as a reason
for moving slowly, even though moving too slowly (or not at all) will
increase the prospects of a DPP return.
Other distractions notwithstanding, it is im****tant for Beijing not to
wait too long before making some significant gestures in response to
Ma's controversial overtures. For starters, it can observe Ma's call
for a "truce" in the international arena. In recent years, Beijing has
taken great delight in humiliating the Chen administration by
spiriting away Taiwan's few remaining allies, normally through a
shameless bidding war that has learned little dignity to either side.
This must stop. If no one recognizes the Republic of China (Taiwan's
official name), why shouldn't it just declare itself the Republic of
Taiwan now and end the "one China" charade?
A more dramatic military gesture is also needed. Merely withdrawing
some easily redeployed mobile missiles is not enough. Beijing needs to
deactivate and plow over some of the 1,000-plus missile sites it has
poised opposite Taiwan as a true goodwill gesture.
The semi-official cross-strait dialogue between Beijing's Association
for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) and Taipei's Straits
Exchange Foundation (SEF) also needs to resume, if for no other reason
than to facilitate the institution of the economic "three links" that
both sides profess to sup****t. Dialogue should also begin, either
through ARATS-SEF or through a quasi-official "track two" gathering,
on cross-strait confidence-building and conflict-avoidance measures.
Beijing also needs to loosen restrictions it has imposed on Taiwan in
the WHO as a first step toward allowing Chinese Taipei to gain
observer status as a "health entity" next year.
Beijing also needs to stop its heavy-handed pressure aimed at blocking
participation by Taiwan scholars at academic gatherings like the
annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Institute of
International and Strategic Studies roundtable and should take steps
to help elevate Taiwan's status in the non-governmental Council for
Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific and other track-two
organizations, while also sup****ting higher-level Taiwan participation
in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting and other
forums.
Ma Ying-jeou took a big political risk in reaching out so dramatically
to Beijing in his inaugural address. Beijing needs to respond.
Wa****ngton also needs to respond positively to Ma's gestures, while
strongly encouraging Beijing to make significant positive gestures
sooner, rather than later, to seize the op****tunity presented by the
change of government and attitude in Taipei.
(Used by permission of Pacific Forum CSIS)
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