On Thu, 22 May 2008 20:12:29 +0800, PaPaPeng wrote
(in article <ohoa34tql053c1l1als83ck3lkadvlkjc7@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
>):
> On Wed, 21 May 2008 08:22:03 -0700 (PDT), demorising@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
>
>> Taiwan leader: China unification unlikely 'in our lifetimes'
>
>
> Quite a different picgture is presengted by Asia Times Online.
Not a single word in Cossa's article suggests unification is coming any
time
soon.
> There is only one issue of im****tance for any leader of Taiwan. That
> will be reunification with China. Everything else is small stuff.
> How this leader will manage the reunification will make his place in
> history. Lose that chance and he becomes a footnote. Already who
> remembers CSB now. He achieved nothing.
CSB's fame will outlive DXP's.
> One hand across the strait
> By Ralph A Cossa
> March 23, 2008
> http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JE23Ad01.html
>
> TAIPEI - "Be careful what you wish for." This Chinese proverb came
> repeatedly to mind when listening this week to incoming Taiwan
> President Ma Ying-jeou's forward-leaning inauguration address that
> sent so many olive branches toward Beijing that even some of his
> ardent sup****ters feared he had "gone too far" and protesters almost
> immediately took to the street in Taipei warning against "selling out"
> to China.
>
> The big question now is can Beijing, after hearing "no" for the past
> eight years, now take "yes" for an answer. Ma called on Beijing to
> join him to "launch a new era of cross-strait relations", based on his
> previously articulated "three no's" policy: no unification, no
> independence and no use of force. He talked about "one China,
> respective interpretations" and the "1992 consensus" (under which both
> sides agreed to disagree over how to define "one China") and made
> several references to "our mutual Chinese heritage".
>
> He also committed to maintaining the status quo across the strait,
> noting at one point that "in a young democracy, respecting the
> constitution is more im****tant than amending it" - his predecessor's
> attempts to amend the constitution was a main source of tension
> between Taipei and Beijing.
>
> In a truly unprecedented gesture, Ma also made specific positive
> reference to Chinese President Hu Jintao's remarks on cross-strait
> relations - "building mutual trust, shelving controversies, finding
> commonalities despite differences and creating together a win-win
> solution" - stating that "his views are very much in line with our
> own".
>
> Ma laid out the normalization of economic and cultural relations with
> the mainland as immediate goals, but warned that "Taiwan doesn't just
> want security and prosperity; it wants dignity". Herein lies the rub!
>
> It should be relatively easy for Beijing to respond positively to Ma's
> calls for direct weekend charter flights and visits to Taiwan by
> mainland tourists and other economic and cultural exchanges. Some
> security gestures, such as a visible drawback of missiles opposite
> Taiwan, is also doable without dramatically changing the security
> calculus. But, is Beijing prepared to make significant gestures aimed
> at truly improving Taiwan's sense of security and relieving its
> international isolation?
>
> A failure by Beijing to respond positively to Ma's olive branches will
> seriously undercut the new Taiwanese leader as he tries to build
> consensus at home in sup****t of his forward-leaning cross-strait
> policies. His address is already being labeled by the opposition as
> "naive" and "wishful thinking". Will Beijing prove this to be the
> case?
>
> For its part, the Chinese leader****p is preoccupied with other things
> right now - earthquake relief, Summer Olympic Games preparations,
> unrest in Tibet and elsewhere - even while breathing a sigh of relief
> that its main nemesis, now-departed president Chen Shui-bian, is
> finally gone. Beijing appeared almost paranoid about Chen springing an
> 11th-hour surprise; a fear exacerbated by its lack of understanding
> about how democratic transitions work. This one worked flawlessly, as
> Chen himself had promised.
>
> Beijing immediately opted to pass on its first chance to make a
> positive political gesture by once again blocking Taiwan's bid for
> observer status in the World Health Organization (WHO). Chen's
> decision to apply as "Taiwan" rather than "Chinese Taipei" regrettably
> made it easier for Beijing to once again block this request, but it
> could have asked the WHO to postpone consideration of Taiwan's bid for
> a few days to allow for a reformulation of the application, rather
> than quickly excluding it from the agenda. As a result, Beijing needs
> to quickly find some other venues to provide the dignity that Ma seeks
> and Taiwan richly deserves.
>
> It appears that Beijing is still struggling to figure out how to deal
> with a potentially friendly government in Taipei after years of just
> saying no to everything and branding every positive gesture by the
> Chen administration a "splittist trick".
>
> The real concern, as some Chinese candidly expressed to me during a
> recent visit to Beijing, is finding ways to improve Taiwan's
> "international breathing space" without further enhancing its status
> as a sovereign independent entity (or dare we say "country"). Fear
> that gestures once made would be exploited were Chen's Democratic
> Progressive Party (DPP) to return to power were also cited as a reason
> for moving slowly, even though moving too slowly (or not at all) will
> increase the prospects of a DPP return.
>
> Other distractions notwithstanding, it is im****tant for Beijing not to
> wait too long before making some significant gestures in response to
> Ma's controversial overtures. For starters, it can observe Ma's call
> for a "truce" in the international arena. In recent years, Beijing has
> taken great delight in humiliating the Chen administration by
> spiriting away Taiwan's few remaining allies, normally through a
> shameless bidding war that has learned little dignity to either side.
> This must stop. If no one recognizes the Republic of China (Taiwan's
> official name), why shouldn't it just declare itself the Republic of
> Taiwan now and end the "one China" charade?
>
> A more dramatic military gesture is also needed. Merely withdrawing
> some easily redeployed mobile missiles is not enough. Beijing needs to
> deactivate and plow over some of the 1,000-plus missile sites it has
> poised opposite Taiwan as a true goodwill gesture.
>
> The semi-official cross-strait dialogue between Beijing's Association
> for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) and Taipei's Straits
> Exchange Foundation (SEF) also needs to resume, if for no other reason
> than to facilitate the institution of the economic "three links" that
> both sides profess to sup****t. Dialogue should also begin, either
> through ARATS-SEF or through a quasi-official "track two" gathering,
> on cross-strait confidence-building and conflict-avoidance measures.
> Beijing also needs to loosen restrictions it has imposed on Taiwan in
> the WHO as a first step toward allowing Chinese Taipei to gain
> observer status as a "health entity" next year.
>
> Beijing also needs to stop its heavy-handed pressure aimed at blocking
> participation by Taiwan scholars at academic gatherings like the
> annual Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Institute of
> International and Strategic Studies roundtable and should take steps
> to help elevate Taiwan's status in the non-governmental Council for
> Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific and other track-two
> organizations, while also sup****ting higher-level Taiwan participation
> in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting and other
> forums.
>
> Ma Ying-jeou took a big political risk in reaching out so dramatically
> to Beijing in his inaugural address. Beijing needs to respond.
> Wa****ngton also needs to respond positively to Ma's gestures, while
> strongly encouraging Beijing to make significant positive gestures
> sooner, rather than later, to seize the op****tunity presented by the
> change of government and attitude in Taipei.
>
> (Used by permission of Pacific Forum CSIS)
>
>
>
>
>
--
Love, Jim
(I often delete parts of the previous post and I often remove excessive
crossposts.)
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