Precios del petr=F3leo alcanzar=EDan pronto los 150 d=F3lares, seg=FAn
analistas
La disparada de los precios del petr=F3leo continuar=E1 y el barril de
crudo podr=EDa alcanzar los 150 d=F3lares hacia el cuarto trimestre,
advierten ahora los analistas, tras revisar precipitadamente sus
previsiones de principios de a=F1o.
"A comienzos de a=F1o, hab=EDamos estimado que el precio del petr=F3leo
caer=EDa en 2008 y se=F1alamos los 80 d=F3lares como precio promedio",
explic=F3 Antoine Halff, estratega de la casa de corretajes Newedge
Group. Pero "frente a la evoluci=F3n del entorno de los mercados
petroleros, estamos revisando al alza ese precio", agreg=F3.
Al igual que Halff, numerosos analistas revisaron sus pron=F3sticos y
estiman precios entre 120 y 150 d=F3lares el barril para el cuarto
trimestre.
Luego de superar sucesivamente los 100, 110 y 115 d=F3lares, el barril
de crudo se negociaba el martes sobre los 119 d=F3lares, un incremento
de 86% en relaci=F3n a su nivel de un a=F1o atr=E1s.
Ante la disparada de los precios del crudo, el presidente George W.
Bush se declar=F3 el martes "inquieto" **** los consumidores
estadounidenses.
"Con esta tendencia al alza de los precios, el petr=F3leo estar=E1 a 150
d=F3lares en el oto=F1o" boreal, pronostic=F3 Douglas McIntyre, estratega
de=
24/7 Wall Street.com.
Seg=FAn John Kilduff (MF Global), los 120 d=F3lares "ya no son m=E1s que
una=
marca cualquiera en la marcha inexorable del petr=F3leo hacia nuevos
r=E9cords".
El crecimiento de la demanda energ=E9tica en las naciones emergentes,
cuyas econom=EDas est=E1n en pleno auge, e incluso en los pa=EDses
productores, as=ED como el descenso de la producci=F3n en los que no son
miembros de la OPEP, terminaron **** vencer la prudencia de los
analistas.
Seg=FAn la Agencia Internacional de la Energ=EDa (AIE), el consumo mundial
de hidrocarburos deber=EDa aumentar 2% en 2008.
China, segundo consumidor mundial luego de Estados Unidos, India y
Medio Oriente, consumir=E1 pronto m=E1s petr=F3leo que Estados Unidos, ****
primera vez en la historia, seg=FAn la AIE.
Este incremento del consumo en los pa=EDses emergentes, evaluado en
4,4%, compensar=EDa as=ED la reducci=F3n de 2% de la demanda energ=E9tica
proyectada en Estados Unidos como consecuencia de la desaceleraci=F3n de
su econom=EDa.
Hist=F3ricamente, las recesiones en Estados Unidos llevaron a un
descenso de los precios. El precio del petr=F3leo baj=F3 26% a 19,84
d=F3lares el barril en Nueva York en 2001, luego de la explosi=F3n de la
"burbuja" de los valores de internet.
Pero "la recesi=F3n econ=F3mica es un elemento secundario para los
mercados petroleros, ****que la oferta no aumenta, mientras que la
demanda se mantiene s=F3lida", subray=F3 Jeff Rubin, jefe de economistas
de CIBC World Markets, el primero que pronostic=F3 que el barril de oro
negro superar=EDa los 100 d=F3lares en 2008.
Manteniendo sin cambios su previsi=F3n de demanda, la OPEP se reh=FAsa a
producir m=E1s y las proyecciones de producci=F3n de los pa=EDses que no
pertenecen al cartel, entre ellos M=E9xico y Rusia, fueron revisadas
marcadamente a la baja.
"Cuando la demanda energ=E9tica se mantiene s=F3lida, la respuesta de la
oferta (...) es decepcionante", subray=F3 Phil Flynn (Alaron Trading).
"Finalmente, el petr=F3leo no tiene otra opci=F3n que subir", estim=F3
Flynn, agregando que el crudo podr=EDa ganar as=ED otros 20 d=F3lares este
verano boreal, per=EDodo de largos viajes en autom=F3vil ("driving
season") en Estados Unidos.
Douglas McIntyre concord=F3, recordando que "los estadounidenses no
pueden ir a trabajar a pie, o ir a la escuela a pie o hacer compras a
pie".
Convertido en una colocaci=F3n alternativa muy buscada **** los
inversores, el ascenso del petr=F3leo tambi=E9n est=E1 sostenido **** la
corrida de los fondos especulativos hacia los mercados de materias
primas, a causa de la ca=EDda del d=F3lar.
Con la divisa estadounidense evolucionando cerca de 1,60 **** euro, se
abaratan las materias primas cotizadas en d=F3lares, que se convierten
en un refugio contra la inflaci=F3n.
Sabado 26 de Abril ...
(Y, estimado lector, si ud cree que la cosa es aceptable y no hay que
tomar medidas preventivas, le recomiendo que lea el re****taje mas
abajo, si tiene quien se lo traduzca del ingles. Si no, le ofrezco la
idea central del mensaje: el precio de petroleo llegara a los 250
dolares **** barril, antes de que termine la recesion norteamericana.)
-----
Oil Price May Go Up to $250, Warn Experts
Syed Ra****d Husain
Crude prices continue to baffle analysts and pundits. With the
$100-era a well established fact in our daily life, there is now a
growing chatter within the energy fraternity that $200 a barrel may
not be a far fetched idea altogether. Is another global oil shock now
gathering pace?
With limited additional supplies, alternative fuel still some decades
away and demand far from collapsing, Deutsche Bank is pointing to a
"huge risk" that oil prices would continue to rise in the near to
mid-term.
"There is a huge risk that the oil price simply continues to escalate
until it gets to some level (possibly $250) when demand finally
collapses because ordinary people can no longer afford to burn as much
energy as they are burning now," Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief
energy economist, wrote in a re****t last Friday.
Pointing to the reasons behind the analysis, Sieminski underlines,
"Oil supply growth in non-OPEC countries is struggling at a time when
OPEC has been cautious with its production policies."
In order to analyze the situation further, we need to look at
historical facts too. In the early 1980s, oil demand collapsed only
after nominal oil prices rose by a factor of 10 between 1970 to 1973
and 1980 to 1983, from about $3.50 a barrel to $35. Based on the
empirical example of factor of 10, Sieminski deduces that since oil
averaged about $25 a barrel from 2000 to 2003, prices would have to
increase to $250 a barrel in 2010 to 2013 to have the same effect on
oil users this time around.
Sieminski continues to argue that strengthening of the dollar would
take time to stem the flow of investment into commodities, and
alternative energies, such as solar power or biofuels, are at least a
decade away from contributing to energy supply.
A Bloomberg re****t also quoted information provider Global Insight as
projecting that crude oil could peak in the US at $135 a barrel in the
next two months. Oil might rise to $135 as the declining dollar draws
investors seeking a currency hedge, before new supplies see prices
fall, Global Insight's Simon Wardell was quoted as saying.
And in the meantime, OPEC president Chekib Khelil too has joined the
chorus, hinting at significantly firmer crude markets in the near
term. Projecting that oil prices could even hit $200 a barrel, Khelil
blamed weakness in the dollar and global political insecurity for the
current market woes. Establi****ng a direct relation****p between the
sinking dollar and the ascending crude prices, Khelil claimed that
with the dollar losing one percent of its value, oil prices rise by $4
a barrel and vice versa.
Talking to Algeria's El Moudjahid newspaper he argued, "I don't think
that any increase in production could help lower (crude) prices,
because there is a balance between supply and demand and the stocks of
gasoline in the United States have recorded a surplus and are at their
highest level for five years."
And OPEC has a point. Energy futures fell sharply last Wednesday after
surprising jump in the US crude oil and distillate fuel inventories
last week. In its weekly inventory re****t, the US Energy Department's
Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories rose by
3.8 million barrels, more than double the increase that analysts
surveyed by energy research firm Platts had expected.
Meanwhile, inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and
diesel fuel, rose by 1.1 million barrels, more than seven times the
expected increase.
Some analysts now believe record gas prices are depressing demand for
gasoline. "The demand just isn't there, and there's plenty of supply,"
admits Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
On the other hand, despite the official OPEC insistence on not raising
the output any further, most Gulf Arab states have been producing at
higher levels recently. As per the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI),
compiled by the Riyadh based International Energy Forum, Saudi Arabia
lifted its rude oil supply in January and February to one of its
highest levels in many years, while the UAE, Kuwait and Iran also
pumped at near capacity. Qatar, a relatively smaller oil producer but
a major gas power, also boosted its crude output to record levels in
February.
Saudi Arabia's output climbed to 9.216 million barrels per day (bpd)
in February and an average of 9.205 million bpd in January and
December. The February level was the Kingdom's highest production in
more than two years and one of the highest in a decade. And despite
this high output over the last few months, Saudi Arabia maintained a
spare capacity of 1-1.5 million bpd - as per its commitment as a
responsible oil producer. Indeed being at the top position also brings
in a number of responsibilities too. And Saudi Arabia seems fully
aware of it.
Although March figures were not available yet, independent estimates
showed Saudi and the Gulf output remaining almost at the February
levels, if not higher.
The UAE also pumped 2.716 million bpd in February, up from around
2.700 million bpd in January. The output is close to the country's
sustainable output capacity and is the highest since the Emirates
began commercial crude ex****ts in the early 1960s.
Kuwait said it boosted its production, including output from the
Neutral Zone, which it shares with Saudi Arabia, by nearly 200,000 bpd
to a record high of 2.797 million bpd in February. Iran also pumped at
maximum capacity of around 4.120 million bpd while Qatar raised
production to its highest ever level of 862,000 bpd in February.
And the above figures once again brings under focus that the real
issue afflicting the crude markets is not the output factor, as
claimed by some in the industrialized world. Output may be one of the
many im****tant factors but indeed not the main factor. Other factors,
much beyond the control of the OPEC seem to be equally responsible for
the woes of the market, if not more, one has to concede.
http://www.arabnews.com
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