On May 5, 7:06=A0am, el hombre macana <elhombremac...@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
> wrote:
> Precios del petr=F3leo alcanzar=EDan pronto los 150 d=F3lares, seg=FAn
> analistas
> La disparada de los precios del petr=F3leo continuar=E1 y el barril de
> crudo podr=EDa alcanzar los 150 d=F3lares hacia el cuarto trimestre,
> advierten ahora los analistas, tras revisar precipitadamente sus
> previsiones de principios de a=F1o.
>
> "A comienzos de a=F1o, hab=EDamos estimado que el precio del petr=F3leo
> caer=EDa en 2008 y se=F1alamos los 80 d=F3lares como precio promedio",
> explic=F3 Antoine Halff, estratega de la casa de corretajes Newedge
> Group. Pero "frente a la evoluci=F3n del entorno de los mercados
> petroleros, estamos revisando al alza ese precio", agreg=F3.
>
> Al igual que Halff, numerosos analistas revisaron sus pron=F3sticos y
> estiman precios entre 120 y 150 d=F3lares el barril para el cuarto
> trimestre.
>
> Luego de superar sucesivamente los 100, 110 y 115 d=F3lares, el barril
> de crudo se negociaba el martes sobre los 119 d=F3lares, un incremento
> de 86% en relaci=F3n a su nivel de un a=F1o atr=E1s.
>
> Ante la disparada de los precios del crudo, el presidente George W.
> Bush se declar=F3 el martes "inquieto" **** los consumidores
> estadounidenses.
>
> "Con esta tendencia al alza de los precios, el petr=F3leo estar=E1 a 150
> d=F3lares en el oto=F1o" boreal, pronostic=F3 Douglas McIntyre,
estratega =
de
> 24/7 Wall Street.com.
>
> Seg=FAn John Kilduff (MF Global), los 120 d=F3lares "ya no son m=E1s que
u=
na
> marca cualquiera en la marcha inexorable del petr=F3leo hacia nuevos
> r=E9cords".
>
> El crecimiento de la demanda energ=E9tica en las naciones emergentes,
> cuyas econom=EDas est=E1n en pleno auge, e incluso en los pa=EDses
> productores, as=ED como el descenso de la producci=F3n en los que no son
> miembros de la OPEP, terminaron **** vencer la prudencia de los
> analistas.
>
> Seg=FAn la Agencia Internacional de la Energ=EDa (AIE), el consumo
mundial=
> de hidrocarburos deber=EDa aumentar 2% en 2008.
>
> China, segundo consumidor mundial luego de Estados Unidos, India y
> Medio Oriente, consumir=E1 pronto m=E1s petr=F3leo que Estados Unidos,
****=
> primera vez en la historia, seg=FAn la AIE.
>
> Este incremento del consumo en los pa=EDses emergentes, evaluado en
> 4,4%, compensar=EDa as=ED la reducci=F3n de 2% de la demanda
energ=E9tica
> proyectada en Estados Unidos como consecuencia de la desaceleraci=F3n de
> su econom=EDa.
>
> Hist=F3ricamente, las recesiones en Estados Unidos llevaron a un
> descenso de los precios. El precio del petr=F3leo baj=F3 26% a 19,84
> d=F3lares el barril en Nueva York en 2001, luego de la explosi=F3n de la
> "burbuja" de los valores de internet.
>
> Pero "la recesi=F3n econ=F3mica es un elemento secundario para los
> mercados petroleros, ****que la oferta no aumenta, mientras que la
> demanda se mantiene s=F3lida", subray=F3 Jeff Rubin, jefe de economistas
> de CIBC World Markets, el primero que pronostic=F3 que el barril de oro
> negro superar=EDa los 100 d=F3lares en 2008.
>
> Manteniendo sin cambios su previsi=F3n de demanda, la OPEP se reh=FAsa a
> producir m=E1s y las proyecciones de producci=F3n de los pa=EDses que no
> pertenecen al cartel, entre ellos M=E9xico y Rusia, fueron revisadas
> marcadamente a la baja.
>
> "Cuando la demanda energ=E9tica se mantiene s=F3lida, la respuesta de la
> oferta (...) es decepcionante", subray=F3 Phil Flynn (Alaron Trading).
>
> "Finalmente, el petr=F3leo no tiene otra opci=F3n que subir", estim=F3
> Flynn, agregando que el crudo podr=EDa ganar as=ED otros 20 d=F3lares
este=
> verano boreal, per=EDodo de largos viajes en autom=F3vil ("driving
> season") en Estados Unidos.
>
> Douglas McIntyre concord=F3, recordando que "los estadounidenses no
> pueden ir a trabajar a pie, o ir a la escuela a pie o hacer compras a
> pie".
>
> Convertido en una colocaci=F3n alternativa muy buscada **** los
> inversores, el ascenso del petr=F3leo tambi=E9n est=E1 sostenido **** la
> corrida de los fondos especulativos hacia los mercados de materias
> primas, a causa de la ca=EDda del d=F3lar.
>
> Con la divisa estadounidense evolucionando cerca de 1,60 **** euro, se
> abaratan las materias primas cotizadas en d=F3lares, que se convierten
> en un refugio contra la inflaci=F3n.
>
> Sabado 26 de Abril ...
>
> (Y, estimado lector, si ud cree que la cosa es aceptable y no hay que
> tomar medidas preventivas, le recomiendo que lea el re****taje mas
> abajo, si tiene quien se lo traduzca del ingles. =A0Si no, le ofrezco la
> idea central del mensaje: el precio de petroleo llegara a los 250
> dolares **** barril, antes de que termine la recesion norteamericana.)
>
> -----
> Oil Price May Go Up to $250, Warn Experts
> Syed Ra****d Husain
>
> Crude prices continue to baffle analysts and pundits. With the
> $100-era a well established fact in our daily life, there is now a
> growing chatter within the energy fraternity that $200 a barrel may
> not be a far fetched idea altogether. Is another global oil shock now
> gathering pace?
>
> With limited additional supplies, alternative fuel still some decades
> away and demand far from collapsing, Deutsche Bank is pointing to a
> "huge risk" that oil prices would continue to rise in the near to
> mid-term.
>
> "There is a huge risk that the oil price simply continues to escalate
> until it gets to some level (possibly $250) when demand finally
> collapses because ordinary people can no longer afford to burn as much
> energy as they are burning now," Adam Sieminski, Deutsche Bank's chief
> energy economist, wrote in a re****t last Friday.
>
> Pointing to the reasons behind the analysis, Sieminski underlines,
> "Oil supply growth in non-OPEC countries is struggling at a time when
> OPEC has been cautious with its production policies."
>
> In order to analyze the situation further, we need to look at
> historical facts too. In the early 1980s, oil demand collapsed only
> after nominal oil prices rose by a factor of 10 between 1970 to 1973
> and 1980 to 1983, from about $3.50 a barrel to $35. Based on the
> empirical example of factor of 10, Sieminski deduces that since oil
> averaged about $25 a barrel from 2000 to 2003, prices would have to
> increase to $250 a barrel in 2010 to 2013 to have the same effect on
> oil users this time around.
>
> Sieminski continues to argue that strengthening of the dollar would
> take time to stem the flow of investment into commodities, and
> alternative energies, such as solar power or biofuels, are at least a
> decade away from contributing to energy supply.
>
> A Bloomberg re****t also quoted information provider Global Insight as
> projecting that crude oil could peak in the US at $135 a barrel in the
> next two months. Oil might rise to $135 as the declining dollar draws
> investors seeking a currency hedge, before new supplies see prices
> fall, Global Insight's Simon Wardell was quoted as saying.
>
> And in the meantime, OPEC president Chekib Khelil too has joined the
> chorus, hinting at significantly firmer crude markets in the near
> term. Projecting that oil prices could even hit $200 a barrel, Khelil
> blamed weakness in the dollar and global political insecurity for the
> current market woes. Establi****ng a direct relation****p between the
> sinking dollar and the ascending crude prices, Khelil claimed that
> with the dollar losing one percent of its value, oil prices rise by $4
> a barrel and vice versa.
>
> Talking to Algeria's El Moudjahid newspaper he argued, "I don't think
> that any increase in production could help lower (crude) prices,
> because there is a balance between supply and demand and the stocks of
> gasoline in the United States have recorded a surplus and are at their
> highest level for five years."
>
> And OPEC has a point. Energy futures fell sharply last Wednesday after
> surprising jump in the US crude oil and distillate fuel inventories
> last week. In its weekly inventory re****t, the US Energy Department's
> Energy Information Administration said crude oil inventories rose by
> 3.8 million barrels, more than double the increase that analysts
> surveyed by energy research firm Platts had expected.
>
> Meanwhile, inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and
> diesel fuel, rose by 1.1 million barrels, more than seven times the
> expected increase.
>
> Some analysts now believe record gas prices are depressing demand for
> gasoline. "The demand just isn't there, and there's plenty of supply,"
> admits Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago.
>
> On the other hand, despite the official OPEC insistence on not raising
> the output any further, most Gulf Arab states have been producing at
> higher levels recently. As per the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI),
> compiled by the Riyadh based International Energy Forum, Saudi Arabia
> lifted its rude oil supply in January and February to one of its
> highest levels in many years, while the UAE, Kuwait and Iran also
> pumped at near capacity. Qatar, a relatively smaller oil producer but
> a major gas power, also boosted its crude output to record levels in
> February.
>
> Saudi Arabia's output climbed to 9.216 million barrels per day (bpd)
> in February and an average of 9.205 million bpd in January and
> December. The February level was the Kingdom's highest production in
> more than two years and one of the highest in a decade. And despite
> this high output over the last few months, Saudi Arabia maintained a
> spare capacity of 1-1.5 million bpd - as per its commitment as a
> responsible oil producer. Indeed being at the top position also brings
> in a number of responsibilities too. And Saudi Arabia seems fully
> aware of it.
>
> Although March figures were not available yet, independent estimates
> showed Saudi and the Gulf output remaining almost at the February
> levels, if not higher.
>
> The UAE also pumped 2.716 million bpd in February, up from around
> 2.700 million bpd in January. The output is close to the country's
> sustainable output capacity and is the highest since the Emirates
> began commercial crude ex****ts in the early 1960s.
>
> Kuwait said it boosted its production, including output from the
> Neutral Zone, which it shares with Saudi Arabia, by nearly 200,000 bpd
> to a record high of 2.797 million bpd in February. Iran also pumped at
> maximum capacity of around 4.120 million bpd while Qatar raised
> production to its highest ever level of 862,000 bpd in February.
>
> And the above figures once again brings under focus that the real
> issue afflicting the crude markets is not the output factor, as
> claimed by some in the industrialized world. Output may be one of the
> many im****tant factors but indeed not the main factor. Other factors,
> much beyond the control of the OPEC seem to be equally responsible for
> the woes of the market, if not more, one has to concede.
>
> http://www.arabnews.com
De que el petr=F3leo llegue a 150 y posiblemente $250 euros est=E1 muy
cerca. El precio del petr=F3leo crece exponencialmente, no linealmente.
Eso signfica que peri=F3dicamente aumenta al doble y va de dos en dos
veces. De 10 subi=F3 a 20, de 20 a 40, de 40 a 80 y as=ED sucesivamente.
Pronto ser=E1 160 y el siguiente ser=E1 320. Aprendan matem=E1ticas.
T.Schmidt
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